Big 12 · 2026 season, in progress
Baylor Bears: luck and expected wins
Baylor is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 63rd-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.
2026, game by game
How often Baylor wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Auburn | L 16–17 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 2 | vs Prairie View A&M | W 44–3 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | vs Louisiana Tech | W 36–19 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 4 | vs Colorado | W 23–13 | 81% | +19 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Baylor win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at Arizona State |  Arizona State by 2.7 | 43% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs TCU |  Baylor by 2.4 | 56% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | at Kansas | Baylor by 2.0 | 55% |
| Week 9 · Oct 30 | at UCF |  UCF by 3.3 | 42% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Iowa State |  Iowa State by 1.7 | 46% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at BYU |  BYU by 11.2 | 25% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Texas Tech |  Texas Tech by 5.7 | 37% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Houston |  Houston by 6.1 | 36% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Baylor’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-snap flags | +0.09 | −1.6 |
| Kicks | +0.05 | +3.4 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.07 | +12.4 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Baylor takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 2 | @ SMU | W 48–45 | 27% | +73 |
| 2025 Week 6 | vs Kansas State | W 35–34 | 67% | +33 |
| 2026 Week 4 | vs Colorado | W 23–13 | 81% | +19 |
| 2026 Week 3 | vs Louisiana Tech | W 36–19 | 83% | +17 |
| 2025 Week 5 | @ Oklahoma State | W 45–27 | 94% | +6 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Baylor would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 4 | vs Arizona State | L 24–27 | 61% | −61 |
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Houston | L 24–31 | 48% | −48 |
| 2025 Week 1 | vs Auburn | L 24–38 | 29% | −29 |
| 2026 Week 1 | vs Auburn | L 16–17 | 18% | −18 |
| 2025 Week 12 | vs Utah | L 28–55 | 15% | −15 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5–7 | 5.6 | −0.6 | 2–3 | – |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Auburn | L 24–38 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 2 | @ SMU | W 48–45 | 27% | +73 |
| Week 3 | vs Samford | W 42–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | vs Arizona State | L 24–27 | 61% | −61 |
| Week 5 | @ Oklahoma State | W 45–27 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 6 | vs Kansas State | W 35–34 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 8 | @ TCU | L 36–42 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 9 | @ Cincinnati | L 20–41 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 10 | vs UCF | W 30–3 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 12 | vs Utah | L 28–55 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 13 | @ Arizona | L 17–41 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 14 | vs Houston | L 24–31 | 48% | −48 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big 12 teams by luck
- Big 12:
Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, 
Cincinnati, 
Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, 
Kansas, 
Kansas State, 
Oklahoma State, 
TCU, Texas Tech, UCF, 
Utah, 
West Virginia
How many wins does Baylor have in 2026?
3–1 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.8 wins.
Was Baylor lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: +0.2 wins of luck, the 63rd-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Baylor’s luckiest season?
2026: 3–1 from play worth 2.8 wins, +0.2 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 5–7 from play worth 5.6 (−0.6).