luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 29, 2025

Auburn at Baylor, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Auburn beat Baylor 38–24, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff Auburn was a 54% favorite.

Final

Auburn Tigers 38
Baylor Bears 24

August 29, 2025 · McLane Stadium · Closing line: Auburn −1.5

Luck index +29 Auburn lucky · −29 Baylor

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Auburn wins 7, Baylor wins 3.

  1. 1 AUB 59 BAY 27
  2. 2 AUB 44 BAY 21
  3. 3 AUB 34 BAY 17
  4. 4 AUB 34 BAY 21
  5. 5 AUB 28 BAY 19
  6. 6 AUB 30 BAY 24
  7. 7 AUB 24 BAY 21
  8. 8 AUB 14 BAY 17
  9. 9 AUB 14 BAY 21
  10. 10 AUB 7 BAY 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Auburn wins 71% of them, Baylor 29%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Auburn by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Auburn by 17+27.9%
Auburn by 9–1619.3%
Auburn by 1–821.3%
Level after regulation5.4%
Baylor by 1–815.1%
Baylor by 9–167.0%
Baylor by 17+4.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to Auburn: the final margin was Auburn by 14, without the luck Auburn by 11.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Hawkins, 36 yds made · 78% expected
  • A. McPherson, 21 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Auburn 8 for 68 yards, Baylor 6 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:29 False Start on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% AUB +0.7 pts
Q1 3:12 False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAY +0.7 pts
Q1 2:54 False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAY +0.6 pts
Q2 1:53 Holding on Auburn, 10 yards +1% BAY +0.6 pts
Q2 0:14 Holding on Auburn, 10 yards +2% BAY +1.0 pts
Q3 11:31 Illegal Formation on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAY +0.7 pts
Q3 4:35 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% AUB +2.0 pts
Q3 3:20 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards +2% AUB +1.1 pts
Q3 1:59 Pass Interference on Auburn, 11 yards +3% BAY +1.3 pts
Q4 14:45 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards 0% AUB +1.1 pts
Q4 13:05 Holding on Auburn, 10 yards 0% BAY +0.5 pts
Q4 8:42 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards +1% AUB +1.4 pts
Q4 2:50 Pass Interference on Auburn, 12 yards 0% BAY +0.6 pts
Q4 2:43 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards 0% AUB +0.9 pts

When it happened

Baylor’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Baylor was ahead in it, below while Auburn was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:19 Baylor converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +3% BAY BAY: Field goal
2 Q1 6:58 Baylor was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +3% AUB BAY: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 6:27 Baylor was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +5% AUB BAY: Punt
4 Q2 8:50 Baylor was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +3% AUB BAY: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 3:21 Baylor converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% BAY BAY: End of half
6 Q3 11:40 Auburn was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +4% BAY AUB: Punt
7 Q3 4:35 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% AUB AUB: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:58 Baylor converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% BAY BAY: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Auburn 97% · Baylor 3%

Final margin
Auburn by 14
Luck in points
2.3 for Auburn
Luck-adjusted margin
Auburn by 11.7
Replay with same day's form
Auburn 71% · Baylor 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Auburn · Baylor

More from Week 1 2025

Every week 1 game, 2025