SEC · 2026 season, in progress

Auburn Tigers: luck and expected wins

Auburn is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 54th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 2–1.

2026, game by game

How often Auburn wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Baylor	W 17–16	82%	+18
Week 2	vs Southern Miss	W 43–8	99%	+1
Week 3	vs Florida	L 39–44	27%	−27
Week 4	vs Vanderbilt	W 21–15	67%	+33

Wk 1 +18 vs BAY

Wk 2 +1 vs USM

Wk 3 −27 vs FLA

Wk 4 +33 vs VAN

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Auburn win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Tennessee	Tennessee by 9.6	27%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Georgia	Georgia by 17.0	15%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs LSU	LSU by 6.7	34%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Ole Miss	Ole Miss by 6.1	36%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Arkansas	Auburn by 13.1	78%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Mississippi State	Mississippi State by 6.7	35%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Samford	Auburn by 45.7	100%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Alabama	Alabama by 17.3	15%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Auburn’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.18	+9.7
Fumble bounces	+0.03	+0.2
Pre-snap flags	−0.06	−0.3

Luckiest wins

Wins Auburn takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 9	@ Arkansas	W 33–24	30%	+70
2026 Week 4	vs Vanderbilt	W 21–15	67%	+33
2025 Week 1	@ Baylor	W 38–24	71%	+29
2026 Week 1	vs Baylor	W 17–16	82%	+18
2025 Week 3	vs South Alabama	W 31–15	91%	+9

Unluckiest losses

Losses Auburn would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 8	vs Missouri	L 17–23	68%	−68
2025 Week 14	vs Alabama	L 20–27	59%	−59
2025 Week 4	@ Oklahoma	L 17–24	40%	−40
2025 Week 7	vs Georgia	L 10–20	29%	−29
2025 Week 10	vs Kentucky	L 3–10	29%	−29

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	5–7	6.3	−1.3	0–6	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Baylor	W 38–24	71%	+29
Week 2	vs Ball State	W 42–3	100%	0
Week 3	vs South Alabama	W 31–15	91%	+9
Week 4	@ Oklahoma	L 17–24	40%	−40
Week 5	@ Texas A&M	L 10–16	5%	−5
Week 7	vs Georgia	L 10–20	29%	−29
Week 8	vs Missouri	L 17–23	68%	−68
Week 9	@ Arkansas	W 33–24	30%	+70
Week 10	vs Kentucky	L 3–10	29%	−29
Week 11	@ Vanderbilt	L 38–45	11%	−11
Week 13	vs Mercer	W 62–17	97%	+3
Week 14	vs Alabama	L 20–27	59%	−59