Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Ball State at Auburn, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Auburn beat Ball State 42–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Auburn wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Auburn was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Ball State Cardinals | 3 |
|---|---|
 Auburn Tigers | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Auburn about even · 0 Ball State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ball State wins 0, Auburn wins 10.
- 1 BALL 3 AUB 21
- 2 BALL 7 AUB 31
- 3 BALL 0 AUB 30
- 4 BALL 0 AUB 34
- 5 BALL 0 AUB 37
- 6 BALL 0 AUB 40
- 7 BALL 0 AUB 42
- 8 BALL 7 AUB 52
- 9 BALL 3 AUB 52
- 10 BALL 0 AUB 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ball State wins 0% of them, Auburn 100%. The line is what actually happened: Auburn by 39.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ball State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Ball State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Ball State by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Auburn by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Auburn by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| Auburn by 17+ | 98.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. McGough, 52 yds missed · 47% expected
- C. Holmer, 22 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Ball State 7 for 57 yards, Auburn 7 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:46 | Delay of Game on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AUB +0.8 pts |
| Q1 0:37 | Holding on Ball State, 10 yards | 0% AUB +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:57 | Offside on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BALL +2.1 pts |
| Q2 12:52 | Face Mask on Auburn, 15 yards | 0% BALL +3.0 pts |
| Q2 10:01 | Holding on Auburn, 10 yards | 0% BALL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:32 | Roughing the Passer on Ball State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% AUB +4.3 pts |
| Q3 12:35 | Holding on Auburn, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% BALL +1.9 pts |
| Q3 9:23 | Delay of Game on Ball State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% AUB +1.5 pts |
| Q3 7:32 | False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BALL +1.0 pts |
| Q3 6:19 | False Start on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AUB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 3:33 | Personal Foul on Auburn, 5 yards | 0% BALL +2.4 pts |
| Q4 12:13 | Pass Interference on Ball State, 12 yards | 0% AUB +1.7 pts |
| Q4 10:08 | Delay of Game on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AUB +0.4 pts |
| Q4 3:03 | Illegal Substitution on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BALL +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Auburn’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:53 | Ball State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +0% AUB | BALL: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:23 | Auburn fumbled and Ball State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% BALL | AUB: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 8:05 | Ball State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +0% BALL | BALL: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:46 | Delay of Game on Ball State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% AUB | AUB: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 0:37 | Holding on Ball State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% AUB | AUB: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q2 9:32 | Roughing the Passer on Ball State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% AUB | AUB: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q3 9:23 | Delay of Game on Ball State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +0% AUB | AUB: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 12:13 | Pass Interference on Ball State, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +0% AUB | AUB: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ball State 0% · Auburn 100%
- Final margin
- Auburn by 39
- Luck in points
- 3.2 for Ball State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Auburn by 42.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Ball State 0% · Auburn 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Ball State · 
Auburn
More from Week 2 2025
- Bryant at Massachusetts BRY 27–26 · replay 10% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Arizona State at Mississippi State MSST 24–20 · replay 47% for the winner
- South Florida at Florida USF 18–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- South Carolina State at South Carolina SC 38–10 · replay 68% for the winner
- Kansas at Missouri MIZ 42–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Kentucky MISS 30–23 · replay 78% for the winner
- Long Island University at Eastern Michigan LIU 28–23 · replay 78% for the winner
- Michigan at Oklahoma OU 24–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- San José State at Texas TEX 38–7 · replay 86% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Cincinnati CIN 34–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Western Michigan UNT 33–30 · replay 89% for the winner