luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025

South Florida at Florida, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

South Florida beat Florida 18–16, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, South Florida wins 6 of 10.

An off day for Florida: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against South Florida it would win 86% of the time; with this day’s form, 44%. The numbers

Before kickoff Florida was an 88% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:34 left): Florida was stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 10 points of win probability to South Florida.

Final

South Florida Bulls 18
Florida Gators 16

September 6, 2025 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Closing line: Florida −18.5

Luck index +44 South Florida lucky · −44 Florida

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. South Florida wins 6, Florida wins 4.

  1. 1 USF 42 FLA 13
  2. 2 USF 30 FLA 10
  3. 3 USF 31 FLA 17
  4. 4 USF 31 FLA 21
  5. 5 USF 24 FLA 17
  6. 6 USF 20 FLA 17
  7. 7 USF 28 FLA 31
  8. 8 USF 19 FLA 28
  9. 9 USF 14 FLA 28
  10. 10 USF 7 FLA 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Florida

It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against South Florida it would win 86% of the time; with this day’s form, 44%.

42 points apart for Florida: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
South Florida offenseEPA per play gained −0.06 +0.04 worse by 0.10
South Florida defenseEPA per play allowed +0.06 +0.07 better by 0.01
Florida offenseEPA per play gained +0.06 +0.08 worse by 0.02
Florida defenseEPA per play allowed −0.06 +0.05 better by 0.12

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

South Florida wins 56% of them, Florida 44%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Florida by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
South Florida by 17+16.0%
South Florida by 9–1618.4%
South Florida by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation2.3%
Florida by 1–823.6%
Florida by 9–1611.5%
Florida by 17+8.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to South Florida: the final margin was South Florida by 2, without the luck South Florida by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • T. Smack, 28 yds made · 91% expected
  • N. Gramatica, 38 yds made · 77% expected
  • T. Smack, 36 yds made · 82% expected
  • T. Smack, 41 yds made · 74% expected
  • N. Gramatica, 25 yds made · 93% expected
  • N. Gramatica, 58 yds missed · 43% expected
  • N. Gramatica, 20 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: South Florida 7 for 50 yards, Florida 11 for 103 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:03 False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.4 pts
Q1 1:10 Illegal Substitution on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% USF +3.0 pts
Q1 0:00 False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FLA +0.4 pts
Q2 11:39 Offside on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% FLA +0.6 pts
Q2 9:48 Holding on Florida, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% USF +3.3 pts
Q2 8:58 Personal Foul on South Florida, 15 yards +2% FLA +1.7 pts
Q2 8:45 Pass Interference on Florida, 15 yards, wiping out the play +4% USF +3.5 pts
Q2 0:42 Holding on South Florida, 10 yards 0% FLA +0.8 pts
Q3 13:29 Delay of Game on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USF +0.4 pts
Q3 8:37 Personal Foul on Florida, 15 yards +3% USF +1.7 pts
Q3 6:08 Holding on Florida, 10 yards +2% USF +1.1 pts
Q3 5:21 False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USF +0.6 pts
Q3 0:53 False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% USF +1.4 pts
Q4 14:56 False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% FLA +0.8 pts
Q4 14:36 Illegal Motion on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% FLA +0.4 pts
Q4 8:57 Offside on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% FLA +0.7 pts
Q4 2:16 Pass Interference on Florida, 13 yards +9% USF +0.9 pts
Q4 2:07 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Florida, 15 yards +7% USF +0.7 pts

When it happened

Florida’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Florida was ahead in it, below while South Florida was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 2:03 South Florida converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% USF USF: Punt
2 Q4 12:29 Florida converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% FLA FLA: Punt
3 Q4 9:26 Florida converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +7% FLA FLA: Punt
4 Q4 6:34 Florida was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +10% USF FLA: Punt
5 Q4 3:32 South Florida was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% FLA USF: Missed field goal
6 Q4 2:39 Florida was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% USF FLA: Punt
7 Q4 2:16 Pass Interference on Florida, 13 yardsJudgment calls +9% USF USF: Field goal
8 Q4 2:07 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Florida, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% USF USF: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

South Florida 51% · Florida 49%

Final margin
South Florida by 2
Luck in points
1.5 for South Florida
Luck-adjusted margin
South Florida by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
South Florida 56% · Florida 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · South Florida · Florida

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