luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 42 of the 54 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Memphis at Georgia State, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

Memphis beat Georgia State 38–16, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff Memphis was an 84% favorite.

Final

Memphis Tigers 38
Georgia State Panthers 16

September 6, 2025 · Center Parc Stadium · Closing line: Memphis −15.5

Luck index +36 Memphis lucky · −36 Georgia State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Memphis wins 6, Georgia State wins 4.

  1. 1 MEM 35 GAST 7
  2. 2 MEM 28 GAST 7
  3. 3 MEM 34 GAST 20
  4. 4 MEM 20 GAST 10
  5. 5 MEM 26 GAST 20
  6. 6 MEM 27 GAST 24
  7. 7 MEM 28 GAST 31
  8. 8 MEM 21 GAST 27
  9. 9 MEM 23 GAST 35
  10. 10 MEM 7 GAST 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Memphis wins 64% of them, Georgia State 36%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Memphis by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Memphis by 17+21.5%
Memphis by 9–1618.3%
Memphis by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation7.6%
Georgia State by 1–816.8%
Georgia State by 9–167.8%
Georgia State by 17+5.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.4 points to Memphis: the final margin was Memphis by 22, without the luck Memphis by 13.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • B. McAlister, 52 yds missed · 52% expected
  • L. Rickman, 42 yds missed · 67% expected
  • G. Spetic, 46 yds missed · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Memphis 6 for 55 yards, Georgia State 8 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:18 Illegal Formation on Georgia State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% MEM +3.9 pts
Q1 6:18 Illegal Formation on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MEM +0.3 pts
Q2 14:52 Face Mask on Georgia State, 15 yards 0% MEM 0.0 pts
Q2 14:52 Face Mask on Georgia State, 23 yards +1% MEM +1.1 pts
Q2 14:00 Holding on Memphis, 10 yards 0% GAST 0.0 pts
Q2 13:54 Holding on Memphis, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% GAST +2.6 pts
Q2 7:43 False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GAST +0.5 pts
Q2 0:22 Holding on Memphis, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% MEM +2.6 pts
Q3 11:15 Offside on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MEM +0.5 pts
Q3 9:18 False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MEM +1.9 pts
Q3 5:41 False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GAST +0.6 pts
Q4 14:07 Face Mask on Memphis, 15 yards +1% GAST +3.7 pts
Q4 13:44 Intentional Grounding on Georgia State, 12 yards +1% MEM +2.4 pts
Q4 12:06 False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MEM +0.4 pts

When it happened

Georgia State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Georgia State was ahead in it, below while Memphis was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:18 Illegal Formation on Georgia State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flagsIllegal Formation on Georgia State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% MEM MEM: End of half
2 Q1 5:22 Georgia State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedGeorgia State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +3% GAST GAST: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 13:54 Holding on Memphis, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% GAST GAST: Missed field goal
4 Q2 11:19 L. Rickman missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him +5% MEM GAST: End of half
5 Q2 9:48 Memphis converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% MEM MEM: Touchdown
6 Q2 4:39 Georgia State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedGeorgia State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +3% GAST GAST: End of half
7 Q2 3:27 Georgia State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedGeorgia State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +2% GAST GAST: End of half
8 Q2 0:22 Holding on Memphis, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% MEM GAST: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Memphis 97% · Georgia State 3%

Final margin
Memphis by 22
Luck in points
8.4 for Memphis
Luck-adjusted margin
Memphis by 13.6
Replay with same day's form
Memphis 64% · Georgia State 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 42 of the 54 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Memphis · Georgia State

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