Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Texas State at UTSA, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas State beat UTSA 43–36, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Texas State wins 5 of 10.
Before kickoff UTSA was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:22 left): UTSA converted 4th & 8, worth 19 points of win probability to UTSA.
Final
 Texas State Bobcats | 43 |
|---|---|
 UTSA Roadrunners | 36 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +53 Texas State lucky · −53 UTSA
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas State wins 5, UTSA wins 5.
- 1 TXST 45 UTSA 17
- 2 TXST 42 UTSA 24
- 3 TXST 35 UTSA 23
- 4 TXST 20 UTSA 13
- 5 TXST 34 UTSA 30
- 6 TXST 21 UTSA 24
- 7 TXST 34 UTSA 41
- 8 TXST 21 UTSA 31
- 9 TXST 35 UTSA 51
- 10 TXST 20 UTSA 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas State wins 47% of them, UTSA 53%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas State by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas State by 17+ | 14.4% |
| Texas State by 9–16 | 12.2% |
| Texas State by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| UTSA by 1–8 | 18.8% |
| UTSA by 9–16 | 15.6% |
| UTSA by 17+ | 18.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Robles, 50 yds made · 54% expected
- T. Robles, 38 yds made · 76% expected
Penalties: Texas State 4 for 40 yards, UTSA 6 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:40 | False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TXST +0.8 pts |
| Q2 10:07 | Penalty on Texas State, 15 yards | +4% UTSA +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:39 | Pass Interference on UTSA, 15 yards | +5% UTSA +3.6 pts |
| Q3 11:35 | Penalty on Texas State, 5 yards | +1% UTSA +0.3 pts |
| Q3 10:30 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | +2% UTSA +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:58 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | +7% UTSA +2.3 pts |
| Q3 6:32 | Illegal Substitution on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TXST +0.5 pts |
| Q3 3:26 | Illegal Substitution on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TXST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:33 | Pass Interference on UTSA, 15 yards | +5% TXST +1.5 pts |
| Q4 14:55 | Pass Interference on UTSA, 15 yards | +2% TXST +0.6 pts |
When it happened
UTSA’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:14 | UTSA was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +7% TXST | UTSA: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 11:23 | UTSA converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +6% UTSA | UTSA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 4:04 | Texas State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% TXST | TXST: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 6:58 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% UTSA | UTSA: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q3 1:57 | UTSA was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +9% TXST | UTSA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 0:27 | Texas State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +8% TXST | TXST: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 10:22 | UTSA converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedUTSA’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +19% UTSA | UTSA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 8:08 | UTSA was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +7% TXST | UTSA: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas State 27% · UTSA 73%
- Final margin
- Texas State by 7
- Luck in points
- 10.5 for Texas State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UTSA by 3.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas State 47% · UTSA 53% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Texas State · 
UTSA
More from Week 2 2025
- Tulane at South Alabama TULN 33–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Army at Kansas State ARMY 24–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Tulsa at New Mexico State NMSU 21–14 · replay 24% for the winner
- South Florida at Florida USF 18–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- Missouri State at Marshall MOST 21–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- UAB at Navy NAVY 38–24 · replay 79% for the winner
- Troy at Clemson CLEM 27–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- McNeese at Louisiana UL 34–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Houston at Rice HOU 35–9 · replay 85% for the winner