Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
McNeese at Louisiana, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Louisiana beat McNeese 34–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Louisiana wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Louisiana was a 90% favorite.
Final
 McNeese Cowboys | 10 |
|---|---|
 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Louisiana about even · −18 McNeese
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. McNeese wins 2, Louisiana wins 8.
- 1 MCN 34 UL 21
- 2 MCN 27 UL 24
- 3 MCN 17 UL 20
- 4 MCN 14 UL 20
- 5 MCN 20 UL 29
- 6 MCN 10 UL 23
- 7 MCN 21 UL 35
- 8 MCN 13 UL 31
- 9 MCN 16 UL 40
- 10 MCN 10 UL 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
McNeese wins 18% of them, Louisiana 82%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| McNeese by 17+ | 2.1% |
| McNeese by 9–16 | 4.6% |
| McNeese by 1–8 | 10.7% |
| Level after regulation | 4.2% |
| Louisiana by 1–8 | 20.8% |
| Louisiana by 9–16 | 21.1% |
| Louisiana by 17+ | 36.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Sterner, 28 yds missed · 90% expected
- T. Sterner, 53 yds missed · 49% expected
- T. Sterner, 38 yds made · 75% expected
- F. Pinton, 45 yds made · 63% expected
- T. Sterner, 37 yds made · 77% expected
Penalties: McNeese 6 for 75 yards, Louisiana 7 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:06 | Personal Foul on McNeese, 15 yards | +2% UL +2.3 pts |
| Q2 11:54 | Personal Foul on Louisiana, 15 yards | +2% MCN +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:48 | Pass Interference on McNeese, 15 yards | +1% UL +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:06 | Pass Interference on McNeese, 15 yards | +1% UL +1.0 pts |
| Q3 12:06 | Offside on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MCN +1.0 pts |
| Q3 9:38 | Personal Foul on Louisiana, 15 yards | +1% MCN +1.4 pts |
| Q3 9:16 | Offside on McNeese, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UL +0.5 pts |
| Q3 8:30 | Roughing the Passer on McNeese, 15 yards | +1% UL +1.9 pts |
| Q3 8:20 | Ineligible Downfield on Louisiana, 5 yards | +1% MCN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 7:13 | False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MCN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 3:09 | Holding on McNeese, 10 yards | +1% UL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:53 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards | +1% MCN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 0:56 | Face Mask on Louisiana, 15 yards | +3% UL +2.6 pts |
When it happened
Louisiana’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:46 | T. Sterner missed a 28-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him | +3% MCN | UL: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 13:11 | McNeese was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +2% UL | MCN: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 12:37 | McNeese converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +2% MCN | MCN: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 11:54 | Personal Foul on Louisiana, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% MCN | MCN: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 9:24 | McNeese was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +5% UL | MCN: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 4:02 | T. Sterner missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 49% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before | +3% MCN | UL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 6:04 | Louisiana was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +3% MCN | UL: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 0:56 | Face Mask on Louisiana, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% UL | MCN: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
McNeese 0% · Louisiana 100%
- Final margin
- Louisiana by 24
- Luck in points
- 0.2 for Louisiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisiana by 23.8
- Replay with same day's form
- McNeese 18% · Louisiana 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
McNeese · 
Louisiana
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