Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Jackson State at Southern Miss, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Southern Miss beat Jackson State 38–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Southern Miss wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Southern Miss was an 81% favorite.
Final
 Jackson State Tigers | 20 |
|---|---|
 Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Southern Miss about even · −6 Jackson State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jackson State wins 1, Southern Miss wins 9.
- 1 JKST 20 USM 14
- 2 JKST 3 USM 6
- 3 JKST 17 USM 24
- 4 JKST 10 USM 23
- 5 JKST 17 USM 34
- 6 JKST 3 USM 23
- 7 JKST 16 USM 38
- 8 JKST 0 USM 26
- 9 JKST 7 USM 37
- 10 JKST 5 USM 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jackson State wins 6% of them, Southern Miss 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Southern Miss by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jackson State by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Jackson State by 9–16 | 1.4% |
| Jackson State by 1–8 | 4.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Southern Miss by 1–8 | 11.0% |
| Southern Miss by 9–16 | 18.5% |
| Southern Miss by 17+ | 64.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Harradine, 45 yds missed · 63% expected
- G. Baeza, 46 yds made · 60% expected
- R. Harradine, 35 yds made · 80% expected
- R. Harradine, 54 yds missed · 47% expected
- G. Baeza, 40 yds made · 72% expected
Penalties: Jackson State 10 for 77 yards, Southern Miss 4 for 43 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:26 | False Start on Jackson State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USM +0.7 pts |
| Q1 9:54 | Running Into the Kicker on Southern Miss, 5 yards | +2% JKST +2.3 pts |
| Q1 4:38 | Unnecessary Roughness on Southern Miss, 13 yards | +1% JKST +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:04 | Holding on Jackson State, 10 yards | +2% USM +1.9 pts |
| Q2 10:44 | False Start on Jackson State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USM +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:39 | Holding on Jackson State, 10 yards | +2% USM +1.9 pts |
| Q2 5:06 | False Start on Jackson State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USM +0.8 pts |
| Q3 14:42 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% JKST +1.9 pts |
| Q3 14:29 | Offside on Jackson State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USM +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:45 | Holding on Jackson State, 7 yards, wiping out the play | +2% USM +1.6 pts |
| Q3 9:01 | Holding on Jackson State, 10 yards | +3% USM +1.6 pts |
| Q3 2:31 | Personal Foul on Jackson State, 15 yards | 0% USM +0.9 pts |
| Q3 1:17 | Offside on Jackson State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USM +2.7 pts |
| Q4 1:54 | Personal Foul on Southern Miss, 15 yards | 0% JKST +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Southern Miss’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:06 | Return touchdown by Southern MissSpecial teams | +6% USM | USM: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 9:54 | Running Into the Kicker on Southern Miss, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +2% JKST | JKST: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 2:04 | Holding on Jackson State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% USM | USM: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 0:43 | R. Harradine missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 47% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before | +2% JKST | USM: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 14:42 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% JKST | JKST: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 10:45 | Holding on Jackson State, 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% USM | USM: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 9:01 | Holding on Jackson State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% USM | USM: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 7:40 | Southern Miss converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +3% USM | USM: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jackson State 0% · Southern Miss 100%
- Final margin
- Southern Miss by 18
- Luck in points
- 0.8 for Jackson State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southern Miss by 18.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Jackson State 6% · Southern Miss 94% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Jackson State · 
Southern Miss
More from Week 2 2025
- Tulane at South Alabama TULN 33–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Texas State at UTSA TXST 43–36 · replay 47% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- Missouri State at Marshall MOST 21–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Troy at Clemson CLEM 27–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- McNeese at Louisiana UL 34–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Charleston Southern at Coastal Carolina CCU 13–0 · replay 93% for the winner
- Lindenwood at App State APP 20–13 · replay 97% for the winner
- Florida A&M at Florida Atlantic FAU 56–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texas Southern at California CAL 35–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at USC USC 59–20 · replay 100% for the winner