Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Tulane at South Alabama, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Tulane beat South Alabama 33–31, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, South Alabama wins 9 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 19 points of win probability to Tulane.
Tulane won on an off day: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against South Alabama it would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%. The numbers
Before kickoff Tulane was an 81% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:59 left): South Alabama’s two-point try failed, worth 11 points of win probability to Tulane.
Final
 Tulane Green Wave | 33 |
|---|---|
 South Alabama Jaguars | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +85 Tulane very lucky · −85 South Alabama
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tulane wins 1, South Alabama wins 9.
- 1 TULN 28 USA 20
- 2 TULN 28 USA 31
- 3 TULN 24 USA 30
- 4 TULN 21 USA 31
- 5 TULN 10 USA 23
- 6 TULN 25 USA 42
- 7 TULN 7 USA 27
- 8 TULN 31 USA 56
- 9 TULN 7 USA 35
- 10 TULN 7 USA 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Tulane won on an off day
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against South Alabama it would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
60 points apart for Tulane: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane offenseEPA per play gained | +0.38 | +0.11 | better by 0.27 |
| Tulane defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.30 | +0.06 | worse by 0.24 |
| South Alabama offenseEPA per play gained | +0.30 | +0.19 | better by 0.11 |
| South Alabama defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.38 | +0.07 | worse by 0.31 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Tulane wins 15% of them, South Alabama 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tulane by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tulane by 17+ | 2.1% |
| Tulane by 9–16 | 4.2% |
| Tulane by 1–8 | 8.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| South Alabama by 1–8 | 19.9% |
| South Alabama by 9–16 | 18.2% |
| South Alabama by 17+ | 45.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- P. Durkin, 50 yds made · 53% expected
- P. Durkin, 34 yds made · 82% expected
- H. DiBoyan, 28 yds made · 89% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Tulane 9 for 67 yards, South Alabama 2 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:31 | Illegal Substitution on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USA +0.5 pts |
| Q1 7:11 | Offside on Tulane, 2 yards · pre-snap | +6% TULN +2.8 pts |
| Q2 14:12 | Face Mask on Tulane, 15 yards | +3% USA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 9:45 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards | +2% USA +1.3 pts |
| Q2 1:23 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USA +0.4 pts |
| Q3 9:45 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards | 0% USA +0.7 pts |
| Q3 0:40 | Illegal Substitution on Tulane, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% TULN 0.0 pts |
| Q3 0:32 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TULN +1.6 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Delay of Game on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TULN +0.4 pts |
| Q4 2:28 | Delay of Game on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USA +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:55 | Roughing the Passer on Tulane, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +3% USA +3.7 pts |
When it happened
South Alabama’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:09 | South Alabama fumbled and Tulane recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% TULN | USA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:11 | Tulane fumbled and South Alabama recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% USA | TULN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:11 | Offside on Tulane, 2 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% TULN | USA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 0:24 | Tulane converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% TULN | TULN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 14:12 | Face Mask on Tulane, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% USA | USA: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 12:20 | South Alabama was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +5% TULN | USA: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 11:07 | Tulane converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +3% TULN | TULN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:59 | South Alabama’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +11% TULN | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tulane 3% · South Alabama 97%
- Final margin
- Tulane by 2
- Luck in points
- 15.4 for Tulane
- Luck-adjusted margin
- South Alabama by 13.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Tulane 15% · South Alabama 85% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Tulane · 
South Alabama
More from Week 2 2025
- Army at Kansas State ARMY 24–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Tulsa at New Mexico State NMSU 21–14 · replay 24% for the winner
- Texas State at UTSA TXST 43–36 · replay 47% for the winner
- South Florida at Florida USF 18–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- Missouri State at Marshall MOST 21–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- UAB at Navy NAVY 38–24 · replay 79% for the winner
- Troy at Clemson CLEM 27–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- McNeese at Louisiana UL 34–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Houston at Rice HOU 35–9 · replay 85% for the winner