Week 2 2025 · September 5, 2025
James Madison at Louisville, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Louisville beat James Madison 28–14, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Louisville was an 84% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:05 left): Return touchdown by Louisville, worth 10 points of win probability to Louisville.
Final
 James Madison Dukes | 14 |
|---|---|
 Louisville Cardinals | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Louisville about even · −23 James Madison
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. James Madison wins 2, Louisville wins 8.
- 1 JMU 20 LOU 7
- 2 JMU 17 LOU 14
- 3 JMU 6 LOU 7
- 4 JMU 6 LOU 10
- 5 JMU 14 LOU 21
- 6 JMU 22 LOU 33
- 7 JMU 7 LOU 20
- 8 JMU 7 LOU 24
- 9 JMU 3 LOU 24
- 10 JMU 6 LOU 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
James Madison wins 23% of them, Louisville 77%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisville by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| James Madison by 17+ | 3.1% |
| James Madison by 9–16 | 7.0% |
| James Madison by 1–8 | 12.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.2% |
| Louisville by 1–8 | 22.0% |
| Louisville by 9–16 | 21.0% |
| Louisville by 17+ | 30.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Ranvier, 22 yds made · 93% expected
- C. Ranvier, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: James Madison 12 for 97 yards, Louisville 5 for 49 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:17 | Holding on Louisville, 9 yards | +5% JMU +3.6 pts |
| Q1 3:31 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards | +6% LOU +3.3 pts |
| Q1 1:43 | Personal Foul on James Madison, 15 yards | +3% LOU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 1:14 | Delay of Game on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JMU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 7:40 | Delay of Game on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LOU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 7:02 | Offside on James Madison, 2 yards · pre-snap | +1% LOU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LOU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:16 | False Start on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JMU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:53 | Pass Interference on Louisville, 15 yards | +7% JMU +2.5 pts |
| Q3 12:45 | Illegal Formation on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LOU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:53 | Delay of Game on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LOU +1.4 pts |
| Q3 6:00 | Holding on James Madison, 5 yards | +1% LOU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Face Mask on James Madison, 8 yards | +2% LOU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 13:30 | Holding on James Madison, 7 yards | +6% LOU +1.8 pts |
| Q4 13:05 | Personal Foul on Louisville, 15 yards | +2% JMU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 3:31 | Face Mask on James Madison, 15 yards | +1% JMU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:07 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards | 0% LOU +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Louisville’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:31 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% LOU | LOU: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 0:46 | Louisville fumbled and James Madison recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% JMU | LOU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 11:19 | James Madison was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +6% LOU | JMU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 8:24 | Louisville converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +6% LOU | LOU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 12:53 | Pass Interference on Louisville, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% JMU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 11:19 | James Madison converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% JMU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 13:30 | Holding on James Madison, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +6% LOU | LOU: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 13:05 | James Madison fumbled and Louisville recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Louisville missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the timePersonal Foul on Louisville, 15 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by LouisvilleSpecial teams | +10% LOU | JMU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
James Madison 3% · Louisville 97%
- Final margin
- Louisville by 14
- Luck in points
- 1.3 for Louisville
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisville by 12.7
- Replay with same day's form
- James Madison 23% · Louisville 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
James Madison · 
Louisville
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Tulane at South Alabama TULN 33–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Texas State at UTSA TXST 43–36 · replay 47% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- UConn at Syracuse SYR 27–20 · replay 66% for the winner
- Missouri State at Marshall MOST 21–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- Troy at Clemson CLEM 27–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- McNeese at Louisiana UL 34–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Virginia at NC State NCSU 35–31 · replay 84% for the winner