Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 69 of the 93 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Baylor at SMU, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Baylor beat SMU 48–45, but the replays lean toward SMU: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff SMU was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 13:29 left): Baylor was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 9 points of win probability to SMU.
Final (OT)
 Baylor Bears | 48 |
|---|---|
 SMU Mustangs | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +73 Baylor very lucky · −73 SMU
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Baylor wins 3, SMU wins 7.
- 1 BAY 38 SMU 20
- 2 BAY 21 SMU 14
- 3 BAY 31 SMU 28
- 4 BAY 21 SMU 24
- 5 BAY 28 SMU 34
- 6 BAY 28 SMU 38
- 7 BAY 21 SMU 34
- 8 BAY 31 SMU 45
- 9 BAY 7 SMU 28
- 10 BAY 14 SMU 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Baylor wins 27% of them, SMU 73%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Baylor by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Baylor by 17+ | 4.5% |
| Baylor by 9–16 | 7.6% |
| Baylor by 1–8 | 14.3% |
| Level after regulation | 4.4% |
| SMU by 1–8 | 21.3% |
| SMU by 9–16 | 19.7% |
| SMU by 17+ | 28.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Rogers, 43 yds made · 68% expected
- C. Rogers, 51 yds missed · 54% expected
- C. Hawkins, 26 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: Baylor 9 for 105 yards, SMU 8 for 94 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:31 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | +7% BAY +4.0 pts |
| Q2 13:25 | Holding on Baylor, 10 yards | +2% SMU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 13:20 | Pass Interference on SMU, 15 yards | +4% BAY +2.3 pts |
| Q2 9:57 | Illegal Formation on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BAY +0.1 pts |
| Q2 9:57 | Illegal Formation on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAY +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:04 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on SMU, 34 yards, wiping out the play | +3% BAY +1.2 pts |
| Q2 8:56 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on SMU, 15 yards | +4% BAY +1.6 pts |
| Q2 7:38 | Horse Collar Tackle on Baylor, 11 yards | +1% BAY +0.4 pts |
| Q2 7:32 | Horse Collar Tackle on Baylor, 4 yards | +2% SMU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 8:25 | Holding on Baylor, 10 yards | +3% SMU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 6:19 | Holding on Baylor, 10 yards | +5% SMU +1.4 pts |
| Q3 5:04 | Unnecessary Roughness on Baylor, 15 yards | +1% BAY +0.2 pts |
| Q3 4:58 | Unnecessary Roughness on Baylor, 15 yards | +4% SMU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 4:41 | Illegal Forward Pass on SMU, 5 yards | 0% SMU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 4:32 | Illegal Forward Pass on SMU, 5 yards | +1% BAY +0.3 pts |
| Q3 0:38 | Pass Interference on Baylor, 15 yards | 0% SMU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 0:18 | Pass Interference on Baylor, 15 yards | +7% SMU +1.9 pts |
When it happened
SMU’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:31 | Holding on SMU, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% BAY | BAY: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q3 13:33 | Baylor was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +6% SMU | BAY: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q3 13:29 | Baylor was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +9% SMU | BAY: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 12:43 | SMU converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% SMU | SMU: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q3 10:36 | C. Rogers missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 17 of 27 from 45+ before | +6% BAY | SMU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 6:58 | Baylor converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +7% BAY | BAY: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 1:48 | Baylor was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expectedBaylor was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +6% SMU | BAY: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 0:18 | Pass Interference on Baylor, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Baylor 89% · SMU 11%
- Final margin
- Baylor by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.3 for SMU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Baylor by 7.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Baylor 27% · SMU 73% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 69 of the 93 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Baylor · 
SMU
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Army at Kansas State ARMY 24–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Arizona State at Mississippi State MSST 24–20 · replay 47% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- UConn at Syracuse SYR 27–20 · replay 66% for the winner
- Kansas at Missouri MIZ 42–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Troy at Clemson CLEM 27–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- Virginia at NC State NCSU 35–31 · replay 84% for the winner
- Houston at Rice HOU 35–9 · replay 85% for the winner