luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2025 college football season · September 5, 2025–September 6, 2025

Week 2 2025: upsets, and who deserved to win

15 upsets in Week 2 2025. The biggest: Long Island University beat Eastern Michigan 28–23 as 8% underdogs, and deserved it. 6 of 83 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Baylor beat SMU 48–45 in a game it wins 27% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 2 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 6 of 15 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Long Island University 28–23 @ Eastern Michigan 8% 78% Deserved
South Florida 18–16 @ Florida 12% 56% Coin flip
Bryant 27–26 @ Massachusetts 14% 10% Lucky
Army 24–21 @ Kansas State 14% 19% Lucky
Missouri State 21–20 @ Marshall 31% 76% Deserved
Jacksonville State 34–24 vs Liberty 34% 60% Coin flip
Mississippi State 24–20 vs Arizona State 36% 47% Coin flip
Texas State 43–36 @ UTSA 39% 47% Coin flip
Ohio 17–10 vs West Virginia 41% 94% Deserved
New Mexico State 21–14 vs Tulsa 41% 24% Lucky
Minnesota 66–0 vs Northwestern State 44% 100% Deserved
Baylor 48–45 @ SMU 44% 27% Lucky
Vanderbilt 44–20 @ Virginia Tech 44% 100% Deserved
UNLV 30–23 vs UCLA 44% 64% Deserved
Fresno State 36–27 @ Oregon State 46% 46% Coin flip

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 2 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Michigan State W 42–40 vs Boston College 8% +92
2 Tulane W 33–31 @ South Alabama 15% +85
3 Army W 24–21 @ Kansas State 19% +81
4 New Mexico State W 21–14 vs Tulsa 24% +76
5 Baylor W 48–45 @ SMU 27% +73
6 Washington State W 36–13 vs San Diego State 44% +56
7 Fresno State W 36–27 @ Oregon State 46% +54
8 Rutgers W 45–17 vs Miami (OH) 46% +54
9 Mississippi State W 24–20 vs Arizona State 47% +53
10 Texas State W 43–36 @ UTSA 47% +53
11 Illinois W 45–19 @ Duke 47% +53
12 Iowa State W 16–13 vs Iowa 52% +48
13 South Florida W 18–16 @ Florida 56% +44
14 Jacksonville State W 34–24 vs Liberty 60% +40
15 UNLV W 30–23 vs UCLA 64% +36
16 Memphis W 38–16 @ Georgia State 64% +36
17 Syracuse W 27–20 vs UConn 66% +34
18 South Carolina W 38–10 vs South Carolina State 68% +32
19 Nevada W 20–17 vs Sacramento State 68% +32
20 Missouri W 42–31 vs Kansas 72% +28
21 Missouri State W 21–20 @ Marshall 76% +24
22 North Carolina W 20–3 @ Charlotte 76% +24
23 Louisville W 28–14 vs James Madison 77% +23
24 Ole Miss W 30–23 @ Kentucky 78% +22
25 Navy W 38–24 vs UAB 79% +21
26 Clemson W 27–16 vs Troy 79% +21
27 Northwestern W 42–7 vs Western Illinois 80% +20
28 Louisiana W 34–10 vs McNeese 82% +18
29 New Mexico W 32–22 vs Idaho State 84% +16
30 Oklahoma W 24–13 vs Michigan 84% +16
31 NC State W 35–31 vs Virginia 84% +16
32 Houston W 35–9 @ Rice 85% +15
33 Texas W 38–7 vs San José State 86% +14
34 Colorado W 31–7 vs Delaware 88% +12
35 Cincinnati W 34–20 vs Bowling Green 88% +12
36 North Texas W 33–30 @ Western Michigan 89% +11
37 Hawai'i W 37–20 vs Sam Houston 89% +11
38 Purdue W 34–17 vs Southern Illinois 93% +7
39 Coastal Carolina W 13–0 vs Charleston Southern 93% +7
40 Maryland W 20–9 vs Northern Illinois 93% +7
41 Ohio W 17–10 vs West Virginia 94% +6
42 Southern Miss W 38–20 vs Jackson State 94% +6
43 LSU W 23–7 vs Louisiana Tech 95% +5
44 Utah W 63–9 vs Cal Poly 95% +5
45 Colorado State W 21–17 vs Northern Colorado 96% +5
46 App State W 20–13 vs Lindenwood 97% +3
47 BYU W 27–3 vs Stanford 97% +3
48 Florida Atlantic W 56–14 vs Florida A&M 98% +2
49 California W 35–3 vs Texas Southern 99% +1
50 Penn State W 34–0 vs Florida International 99% +1
51 Indiana W 56–9 vs Kennesaw State 99% +1
52 Georgia W 28–6 vs Austin Peay 99% +1
53 Toledo W 45–21 vs Western Kentucky 99% +1
54 Wyoming W 31–7 vs Northern Iowa 99% +1
55 UTEP W 42–17 vs UT Martin 99% +1
56 Wisconsin W 42–10 vs Middle Tennessee 99% +1
57 Vanderbilt W 44–20 @ Virginia Tech 100% 0
58 Nebraska W 68–0 vs Akron 100% 0
59 UCF W 68–7 vs North Carolina A&T 100% 0
60 Washington W 70–10 vs UC Davis 100% 0
61 Texas Tech W 62–14 vs Kent State 100% 0
62 USC W 59–20 vs Georgia Southern 100% 0
63 Arkansas W 56–14 vs Arkansas State 100% 0
64 Boise State W 51–14 vs Eastern Washington 100% 0
65 Minnesota W 66–0 vs Northwestern State 100% 0
66 Pittsburgh W 45–17 vs Central Michigan 100% 0
67 Florida State W 77–3 vs East Texas A&M 100% 0
68 Texas A&M W 44–22 vs Utah State 100% 0
69 Wake Forest W 42–10 vs Western Carolina 100% 0
70 Temple W 55–7 vs Howard 100% 0
71 Tennessee W 72–17 vs East Tennessee State 100% 0
72 Ohio State W 70–0 vs Grambling 100% 0
73 Oregon W 69–3 vs Oklahoma State 100% 0
74 Georgia Tech W 59–12 vs Gardner-Webb 100% 0
75 Buffalo W 45–6 vs Saint Francis 100% 0
76 Old Dominion W 54–6 vs North Carolina Central 100% 0
77 East Carolina W 56–3 vs Campbell 100% 0
78 Miami W 45–3 vs Bethune-Cookman 100% 0
79 Auburn W 42–3 vs Ball State 100% 0
80 Alabama W 73–0 vs UL Monroe 100% 0
81 Arizona W 48–3 vs Weber State 100% 0
82 Central Michigan L 17–45 @ Pittsburgh 0% 0
83 Utah State L 22–44 @ Texas A&M 0% 0
84 Oklahoma State L 3–69 @ Oregon 0% 0
85 Ball State L 3–42 @ Auburn 0% 0
86 UL Monroe L 0–73 @ Alabama 0% 0
87 Arkansas State L 14–56 vs Arkansas 0% 0
88 Georgia Southern L 20–59 @ USC 0% 0
89 Kent State L 14–62 @ Texas Tech 0% 0
90 Akron L 0–68 @ Nebraska 0% 0
91 Virginia Tech L 20–44 vs Vanderbilt 0% 0
92 Middle Tennessee L 10–42 @ Wisconsin 1% −1
93 Western Kentucky L 21–45 @ Toledo 1% −1
94 Kennesaw State L 9–56 @ Indiana 1% −1
95 Florida International L 0–34 @ Penn State 1% −1
96 Stanford L 3–27 @ BYU 3% −3
97 Louisiana Tech L 7–23 @ LSU 5% −5
98 West Virginia L 10–17 @ Ohio 6% −6
99 Northern Illinois L 9–20 @ Maryland 7% −7
100 Sam Houston L 20–37 @ Hawai'i 11% −11
101 Western Michigan L 30–33 vs North Texas 11% −11
102 Bowling Green L 20–34 @ Cincinnati 12% −12
103 Delaware L 7–31 @ Colorado 12% −12
104 San José State L 7–38 @ Texas 14% −14
105 Rice L 9–35 vs Houston 15% −15
106 Virginia L 31–35 @ NC State 16% −16
107 Michigan L 13–24 @ Oklahoma 16% −16
108 Troy L 16–27 @ Clemson 21% −21
109 UAB L 24–38 @ Navy 21% −21
110 Eastern Michigan L 23–28 vs Long Island University 22% −22
111 Kentucky L 23–30 vs Ole Miss 22% −22
112 James Madison L 14–28 @ Louisville 23% −23
113 Charlotte L 3–20 vs North Carolina 24% −24
114 Marshall L 20–21 vs Missouri State 24% −24
115 Kansas L 31–42 @ Missouri 28% −28
116 UConn L 20–27 @ Syracuse 34% −34
117 Georgia State L 16–38 vs Memphis 36% −36
118 UCLA L 23–30 @ UNLV 36% −36
119 Liberty L 24–34 @ Jacksonville State 40% −40
120 Florida L 16–18 vs South Florida 44% −44
121 Iowa L 13–16 @ Iowa State 48% −48
122 Duke L 19–45 vs Illinois 53% −53
123 UTSA L 36–43 vs Texas State 53% −53
124 Arizona State L 20–24 @ Mississippi State 53% −53
125 Miami (OH) L 17–45 @ Rutgers 54% −54
126 Oregon State L 27–36 vs Fresno State 54% −54
127 San Diego State L 13–36 @ Washington State 56% −56
128 SMU L 45–48 vs Baylor 73% −73
129 Tulsa L 14–21 @ New Mexico State 76% −76
130 Kansas State L 21–24 vs Army 81% −81
131 South Alabama L 31–33 vs Tulane 85% −85
132 Massachusetts L 26–27 vs Bryant 90% −90
133 Boston College L 40–42 @ Michigan State 92% −92