Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Northern Colorado at Colorado State, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Colorado State beat Northern Colorado 21–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Colorado State wins 10 of 10. Northern Colorado had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 18 points of win probability to Northern Colorado.
Before kickoff Colorado State was a 99% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:27 left): Colorado State fumbled and Northern Colorado recovered, worth 17 points of win probability to Northern Colorado.
Final
 Northern Colorado Bears | 17 |
|---|---|
 Colorado State Rams | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Colorado State about even · −5 Northern Colorado
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Northern Colorado wins 0, Colorado State wins 10.
- 1 UNCO 20 CSU 24
- 2 UNCO 20 CSU 28
- 3 UNCO 13 CSU 24
- 4 UNCO 10 CSU 24
- 5 UNCO 13 CSU 30
- 6 UNCO 3 CSU 23
- 7 UNCO 17 CSU 41
- 8 UNCO 14 CSU 42
- 9 UNCO 6 CSU 38
- 10 UNCO 7 CSU 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Northern Colorado wins 4% of them, Colorado State 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colorado State by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Northern Colorado by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Northern Colorado by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| Northern Colorado by 1–8 | 3.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Colorado State by 1–8 | 9.5% |
| Colorado State by 9–16 | 16.3% |
| Colorado State by 17+ | 69.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- I. Hankins, 46 yds missed · 61% expected
- J. Willig, 23 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Northern Colorado 5 for 44 yards, Colorado State 9 for 94 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:52 | Pass Interference on Northern Colorado, 15 yards | 0% CSU +1.3 pts |
| Q1 14:51 | False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNCO +0.7 pts |
| Q2 13:26 | Unnecessary Roughness on Colorado State, 15 yards | +1% UNCO +1.6 pts |
| Q2 9:07 | Delay of Game on Northern Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:46 | False Start on Northern Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:00 | Offside on Colorado State, 20 yards · pre-snap | +3% UNCO 0.0 pts |
| Q3 13:27 | Pass Interference on Northern Colorado, 4 yards | +2% CSU +1.7 pts |
| Q3 8:58 | Face Mask on Colorado State, 3 yards | +6% UNCO +2.2 pts |
| Q3 1:25 | Pass Interference on Colorado State, 10 yards | +3% UNCO +0.8 pts |
| Q4 12:13 | Holding on Colorado State, 7 yards | +3% UNCO +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:42 | Illegal Substitution on Colorado State, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% UNCO +0.2 pts |
| Q4 0:21 | Roughing the Passer on Colorado State, 15 yards | +4% UNCO +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:08 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Northern Colorado, 15 yards | +2% CSU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:01 | Pass Interference on Colorado State, 15 yards | +3% CSU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Colorado State’s chance of winning
As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 10:32 | Northern Colorado converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +8% UNCO | UNCO: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 8:58 | Face Mask on Colorado State, 3 yardsJudgment calls | +6% UNCO | UNCO: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 10:42 | Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedIllegal Substitution on Colorado State, 4 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% UNCO | CSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 5:27 | Colorado State fumbled and Northern Colorado recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +17% UNCO | CSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 4:01 | Northern Colorado was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +7% CSU | UNCO: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 0:44 | Colorado State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% UNCO | – |
| 7 | Q4 0:21 | Roughing the Passer on Colorado State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% UNCO | UNCO: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:08 | Northern Colorado was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Northern Colorado, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% CSU | UNCO: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Northern Colorado 9% · Colorado State 91%
- Final margin
- Colorado State by 4
- Luck in points
- 3.9 for Northern Colorado
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Colorado State by 7.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Northern Colorado 4% · Colorado State 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Northern Colorado · 
Colorado State
More from Week 2 2025
- San Diego State at Washington State WSU 36–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- Fresno State at Oregon State FRES 36–27 · replay 46% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- Sacramento State at Nevada NEV 20–17 · replay 68% for the winner
- Idaho State at New Mexico UNM 32–22 · replay 84% for the winner
- San José State at Texas TEX 38–7 · replay 86% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Hawai'i HAW 37–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Cal Poly at Utah UTAH 63–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Northern Iowa at Wyoming WYO 31–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- UC Davis at Washington WASH 70–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Eastern Washington at Boise State BOIS 51–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Utah State at Texas A&M TA&M 44–22 · replay 100% for the winner