luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025

Cal Poly at Utah, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

Utah beat Cal Poly 63–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Utah wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Utah was a 100% favorite.

Final

Cal Poly Mustangs 9
Utah Utes 63

September 6, 2025 · Rice-Eccles Stadium · Closing line: Utah −42.5

Luck index +5 Utah about even · −5 Cal Poly

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cal Poly wins 0, Utah wins 10.

  1. 1 CP 13 UTAH 17
  2. 2 CP 3 UTAH 13
  3. 3 CP 14 UTAH 28
  4. 4 CP 3 UTAH 20
  5. 5 CP 6 UTAH 24
  6. 6 CP 17 UTAH 38
  7. 7 CP 13 UTAH 38
  8. 8 CP 9 UTAH 38
  9. 9 CP 3 UTAH 38
  10. 10 CP 7 UTAH 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cal Poly wins 5% of them, Utah 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Utah by 54.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cal Poly by 17+0.4%
Cal Poly by 9–160.9%
Cal Poly by 1–82.9%
Level after regulation0.7%
Utah by 1–89.2%
Utah by 9–1616.7%
Utah by 17+69.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to Utah: the final margin was Utah by 54, without the luck Utah by 51.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Serna, 30 yds made · 85% expected
  • G. Dimauro, 47 yds made · 60% expected
  • N. Serna, 51 yds made · 51% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cal Poly 4 for 20 yards, Utah 7 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:20 False Start on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CP +0.8 pts
Q1 9:45 Holding on Utah, 5 yards 0% CP +0.6 pts
Q1 8:42 False Start on Cal Poly, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTAH +0.8 pts
Q1 8:05 Roughing the Passer on Utah, 15 yards 0% CP +2.4 pts
Q1 4:07 False Start on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CP +0.6 pts
Q2 8:50 Pass Interference on Utah, 15 yards 0% CP +2.6 pts
Q2 7:09 Delay of Game on Cal Poly, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTAH +0.2 pts
Q2 6:26 Encroachment on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CP +0.6 pts
Q3 5:50 Pass Interference on Utah, 15 yards 0% CP +2.5 pts
Q4 11:45 False Start on Cal Poly, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTAH +0.6 pts
Q4 11:19 Delay of Game on Cal Poly, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTAH +0.5 pts

When it happened

Utah’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Utah was ahead in it, below while Cal Poly was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:21 Utah converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +0% UTAH UTAH: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:45 Holding on Utah, 5 yardsJudgment calls +0% CP CP: Field goal
3 Q1 8:49 Utah was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +0% CP UTAH: Punt
4 Q1 8:05 Roughing the Passer on Utah, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% CP CP: Field goal
5 Q1 7:15 Return touchdown by UtahSpecial teams +0% UTAH UTAH: Touchdown
6 Q2 8:50 Pass Interference on Utah, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% CP CP: Field goal
7 Q2 3:57 Utah was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +0% CP UTAH: Punt
8 Q2 2:12 Cal Poly converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +0% CP CP: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cal Poly 0% · Utah 100%

Final margin
Utah by 54
Luck in points
2.2 for Utah
Luck-adjusted margin
Utah by 51.8
Replay with same day's form
Cal Poly 5% · Utah 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Cal Poly · Utah

More from Week 2 2025

Every week 2 game, 2025