Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
West Virginia at Ohio, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Ohio beat West Virginia 17–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ohio wins 9 of 10.
An off day for West Virginia: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Ohio it would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers
Before kickoff West Virginia was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:42 left): Holding on West Virginia, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to Ohio.
Final
 West Virginia Mountaineers | 10 |
|---|---|
 Ohio Bobcats | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Ohio about even · −6 West Virginia
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Virginia wins 1, Ohio wins 9.
- 1 WVU 26 OHIO 20
- 2 WVU 23 OHIO 27
- 3 WVU 27 OHIO 37
- 4 WVU 20 OHIO 34
- 5 WVU 3 OHIO 21
- 6 WVU 20 OHIO 41
- 7 WVU 13 OHIO 38
- 8 WVU 7 OHIO 35
- 9 WVU 10 OHIO 43
- 10 WVU 6 OHIO 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for West Virginia
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Ohio it would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
46 points apart for West Virginia: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia offenseEPA per play gained | −0.29 | +0.11 | worse by 0.40 |
| West Virginia defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.16 | better by 0.03 |
| Ohio offenseEPA per play gained | +0.13 | +0.14 | worse by 0.01 |
| Ohio defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.29 | +0.07 | better by 0.35 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
West Virginia wins 6% of them, Ohio 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ohio by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Virginia by 17+ | 0.3% |
| West Virginia by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| West Virginia by 1–8 | 3.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Ohio by 1–8 | 10.3% |
| Ohio by 9–16 | 13.1% |
| Ohio by 17+ | 70.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. Peacock, 37 yds made · 77% expected
- B. Peacock, 38 yds missed · 76% expected
- K. Hensley, 38 yds made · 76% expected
Penalties: West Virginia 7 for 75 yards, Ohio 7 for 33 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:29 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WVU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 3:17 | Roughing the Passer on West Virginia, 15 yards | +3% OHIO +1.9 pts |
| Q1 3:17 | Delay of Game on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WVU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 8:36 | Holding on West Virginia, 5 yards | +5% OHIO +2.1 pts |
| Q2 8:36 | Delay of Game on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WVU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2:31 | Holding on West Virginia, 10 yards | +2% OHIO +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:44 | Pass Interference on West Virginia, 15 yards | +1% OHIO +0.5 pts |
| Q3 12:31 | Pass Interference on West Virginia, 15 yards | +5% OHIO +2.2 pts |
| Q4 13:42 | Holding on West Virginia, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% OHIO +1.9 pts |
| Q4 12:29 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WVU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 8:21 | Delay of Game on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OHIO +1.0 pts |
| Q4 6:18 | Pass Interference on Ohio, 3 yards, wiping out the play | +17% WVU +4.4 pts |
| Q4 6:18 | False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OHIO 0.0 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Delay of Game on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Ohio’s chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 8:36 | Ohio converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedHolding on West Virginia, 5 yardsJudgment callsDelay of Game on Ohio, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +9% OHIO | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 2:36 | Ohio converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +7% WVU | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 12:31 | K. Hensley made a 38-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for himPass Interference on West Virginia, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% OHIO | WVU: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 1:49 | West Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +7% OHIO | WVU: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 13:42 | West Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedHolding on West Virginia, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% OHIO | WVU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 10:08 | West Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% OHIO | WVU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 8:21 | West Virginia was stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedOhio was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedOhio fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Delay of Game on Ohio, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% OHIO | WVU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 6:18 | West Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedPass Interference on Ohio, 3 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on West Virginia, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% WVU | WVU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Virginia 5% · Ohio 95%
- Final margin
- Ohio by 7
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for West Virginia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio by 10.1
- Replay with same day's form
- West Virginia 6% · Ohio 94% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
West Virginia · 
Ohio
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