Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 56 of the 63 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
North Texas at Western Michigan, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
North Texas beat Western Michigan 33–30, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, North Texas wins 9 of 10. Western Michigan had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 26 points of win probability to Western Michigan.
Before kickoff North Texas was a 79% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:03 left): North Texas converted 3rd & 4, worth 25 points of win probability to Western Michigan.
Final (OT)
 North Texas Mean Green | 33 |
|---|---|
 Western Michigan Broncos | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 North Texas about even · −11 Western Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. North Texas wins 9, Western Michigan wins 1.
- 1 UNT 51 WMU 10
- 2 UNT 44 WMU 10
- 3 UNT 49 WMU 21
- 4 UNT 24 WMU 0
- 5 UNT 41 WMU 21
- 6 UNT 16 WMU 0
- 7 UNT 33 WMU 20
- 8 UNT 20 WMU 10
- 9 UNT 24 WMU 20
- 10 UNT 26 WMU 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
North Texas wins 89% of them, Western Michigan 11%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: North Texas by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| North Texas by 17+ | 56.6% |
| North Texas by 9–16 | 17.0% |
| North Texas by 1–8 | 14.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Western Michigan by 1–8 | 6.3% |
| Western Michigan by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Western Michigan by 17+ | 1.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Miles Jr., 40 yds made · 72% expected
- K. Nguma, 22 yds made · 92% expected
- P. Domschke, 43 yds made · 64% expected
- K. Nguma, 25 yds made · 90% expected
- P. Domschke, 48 yds made · 55% expected
Penalties: North Texas 11 for 108 yards, Western Michigan 6 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:33 | Personal Foul on Western Michigan, 0 yards | 0% UNT 0.0 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Illegal Formation on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UNT +1.2 pts |
| Q3 14:15 | Holding on North Texas, 10 yards | +2% WMU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 14:15 | Holding on North Texas, 25 yards, wiping out the play | +1% UNT +0.5 pts |
| Q3 9:19 | Pass Interference on North Texas, 15 yards | +1% WMU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 9:19 | Pass Interference on North Texas, 15 yards | +4% WMU +1.4 pts |
| Q3 5:58 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WMU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 5:58 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WMU +0.1 pts |
| Q3 4:40 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on North Texas, 18 yards, wiping out the play | +7% WMU +1.9 pts |
| Q3 4:40 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on North Texas, 0 yards | 0% WMU 0.0 pts |
| Q4 11:22 | Offside on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% UNT +1.2 pts |
| Q4 7:38 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% WMU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:32 | False Start on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNT +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:18 | Holding on Western Michigan, 10 yards | +2% UNT +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:10 | Illegal Formation on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WMU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:43 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% WMU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 0:54 | Personal Foul on Western Michigan, 15 yards | +1% UNT +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Western Michigan’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 98%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 15:00 | Western Michigan converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedWestern Michigan converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +9% WMU | WMU: End of half |
| 2 | Q3 13:45 | North Texas converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +7% UNT | UNT: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q3 10:41 | North Texas was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +14% WMU | UNT: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 14:13 | P. Domschke made a 43-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him | +8% UNT | WMU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 10:03 | North Texas converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +25% WMU | UNT: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 1:43 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% WMU | WMU: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 1:35 | K. Nguma made a 25-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him | +10% WMU | – |
| 8 | OT | P. Domschke made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 2 of 5 from 45+ before | +10% UNT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
North Texas 96% · Western Michigan 4%
- Final margin
- North Texas by 3
- Luck in points
- 9.8 for Western Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- North Texas by 12.8
- Replay with same day's form
- North Texas 89% · Western Michigan 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 56 of the 63 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
North Texas · 
Western Michigan
More from Week 2 2025
- Bryant at Massachusetts BRY 27–26 · replay 10% for the winner
- Tulane at South Alabama TULN 33–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Army at Kansas State ARMY 24–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Tulsa at New Mexico State NMSU 21–14 · replay 24% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Texas State at UTSA TXST 43–36 · replay 47% for the winner
- South Florida at Florida USF 18–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- Long Island University at Eastern Michigan LIU 28–23 · replay 78% for the winner
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