Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Long Island University at Eastern Michigan, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Long Island University beat Eastern Michigan 28–23, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
An off day for Eastern Michigan: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Long Island University it would win 89% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%. The numbers
Before kickoff Eastern Michigan was a 92% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:34 left): Long Island University converted 3rd & 9, worth 14 points of win probability to Long Island University.
Final
 Long Island University Sharks | 28 |
|---|---|
 Eastern Michigan Eagles | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Long Island University about even · −22 Eastern Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Long Island University wins 8, Eastern Michigan wins 2.
- 1 LIU 41 EMU 3
- 2 LIU 35 EMU 7
- 3 LIU 35 EMU 13
- 4 LIU 31 EMU 13
- 5 LIU 56 EMU 42
- 6 LIU 20 EMU 10
- 7 LIU 34 EMU 27
- 8 LIU 17 EMU 14
- 9 LIU 14 EMU 20
- 10 LIU 19 EMU 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Eastern Michigan
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Long Island University it would win 89% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
67 points apart for Eastern Michigan: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Island University offenseEPA per play gained | +0.04 | +0.05 | worse by 0.01 |
| Long Island University defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.02 | +0.07 | better by 0.09 |
| Eastern Michigan offenseEPA per play gained | −0.02 | +0.08 | worse by 0.10 |
| Eastern Michigan defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.13 | better by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Long Island University wins 78% of them, Eastern Michigan 22%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Long Island University by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Long Island University by 17+ | 38.3% |
| Long Island University by 9–16 | 18.0% |
| Long Island University by 1–8 | 17.6% |
| Level after regulation | 5.3% |
| Eastern Michigan by 1–8 | 11.6% |
| Eastern Michigan by 9–16 | 5.6% |
| Eastern Michigan by 17+ | 3.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Kessinger, 32 yds made · 85% expected
- L. Maiberg, 23 yds missed · 92% expected
Penalties: Long Island University 2 for 17 yards, Eastern Michigan 0 for 0 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:29 | Offside on Long Island University, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% EMU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 1:04 | Personal Foul on Long Island University, 12 yards | +1% EMU +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Eastern Michigan’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 94%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 14:50 | Long Island University converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedLong Island University converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% LIU | LIU: End of half |
| 2 | Q2 11:22 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +5% EMU | EMU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 12:06 | L. Maiberg missed a 23-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him | +7% EMU | LIU: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 7:41 | Long Island University fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% LIU | LIU: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 1:48 | Long Island University converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedLong Island University converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +7% LIU | LIU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 14:07 | Long Island University converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expectedLong Island University was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +14% EMU | LIU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 8:34 | Long Island University converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +14% LIU | LIU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 5:23 | Long Island University converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +6% LIU | LIU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Long Island University 18% · Eastern Michigan 82%
- Final margin
- Long Island University by 5
- Luck in points
- 10.7 for Long Island University
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eastern Michigan by 5.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Long Island University 78% · Eastern Michigan 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Long Island University · 
Eastern Michigan
More from Week 2 2025
- Bryant at Massachusetts BRY 27–26 · replay 10% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Cincinnati CIN 34–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Western Michigan UNT 33–30 · replay 89% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Maryland MD 20–9 · replay 93% for the winner
- West Virginia at Ohio OHIO 17–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Toledo TOL 45–21 · replay 99% for the winner
- Akron at Nebraska NEB 68–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kent State at Texas Tech TTU 62–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Pittsburgh PITT 45–17 · replay 100% for the winner
- Saint Francis at Buffalo BUF 45–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Ball State at Auburn AUB 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner