Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Akron at Nebraska, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Nebraska beat Akron 68–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Nebraska wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Nebraska was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Akron Zips | 0 |
|---|---|
 Nebraska Cornhuskers | 68 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Nebraska about even · 0 Akron
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Akron wins 0, Nebraska wins 10.
- 1 AKR 28 NEB 38
- 2 AKR 17 NEB 35
- 3 AKR 17 NEB 42
- 4 AKR 14 NEB 44
- 5 AKR 15 NEB 49
- 6 AKR 10 NEB 49
- 7 AKR 7 NEB 49
- 8 AKR 24 NEB 70
- 9 AKR 0 NEB 51
- 10 AKR 13 NEB 73
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Akron wins 0% of them, Nebraska 100%. The line is what actually happened: Nebraska by 68.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Akron by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Akron by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Akron by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Nebraska by 1–8 | 1.5% |
| Nebraska by 9–16 | 3.3% |
| Nebraska by 17+ | 94.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Cunanan, 35 yds made · 81% expected
- O. Wiley, 46 yds missed · 60% expected
- O. Wiley, 33 yds blocked · 81% expected
Penalties: Akron 1 for 5 yards, Nebraska 6 for 71 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:56 | Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards | 0% AKR +1.8 pts |
| Q2 8:17 | Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards | 0% AKR +1.3 pts |
| Q2 2:08 | False Start on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AKR +1.0 pts |
| Q2 0:46 | Pass Interference on Nebraska, 15 yards | 0% AKR +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:46 | Face Mask on Nebraska, 15 yards | 0% AKR +0.5 pts |
| Q3 2:32 | Pass Interference on Nebraska, 11 yards | 0% AKR +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:56 | Illegal Block on Nebraska, 10 yards | 0% AKR +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Nebraska’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:56 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedHolding on Nebraska, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% NEB | NEB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:17 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +0% NEB | NEB: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 9:37 | Akron was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +0% NEB | AKR: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:09 | Nebraska fumbled and Akron recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% AKR | NEB: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 1:47 | Nebraska was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +0% AKR | NEB: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q1 0:49 | Nebraska was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +0% AKR | NEB: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 15:00 | Akron was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% NEB | AKR: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 12:01 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedNebraska converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +0% NEB | NEB: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Akron 0% · Nebraska 100%
- Final margin
- Nebraska by 68
- Luck in points
- 14.2 for Nebraska
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Nebraska by 53.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Akron 0% · Nebraska 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Akron · 
Nebraska
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Bryant at Massachusetts BRY 27–26 · replay 10% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- Long Island University at Eastern Michigan LIU 28–23 · replay 78% for the winner
- Western Illinois at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Michigan at Oklahoma OU 24–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Cincinnati CIN 34–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Western Michigan UNT 33–30 · replay 89% for the winner
- Southern Illinois at Purdue PUR 34–17 · replay 93% for the winner