Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Michigan at Oklahoma, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Oklahoma beat Michigan 24–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oklahoma wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Oklahoma was a 58% favorite.
Final
 Michigan Wolverines | 13 |
|---|---|
 Oklahoma Sooners | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Oklahoma about even · −16 Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Michigan wins 2, Oklahoma wins 8.
- 1 MICH 27 OU 14
- 2 MICH 17 OU 14
- 3 MICH 35 OU 38
- 4 MICH 14 OU 20
- 5 MICH 7 OU 16
- 6 MICH 0 OU 12
- 7 MICH 17 OU 33
- 8 MICH 21 OU 40
- 9 MICH 13 OU 37
- 10 MICH 20 OU 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Michigan wins 16% of them, Oklahoma 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oklahoma by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Michigan by 17+ | 1.6% |
| Michigan by 9–16 | 4.5% |
| Michigan by 1–8 | 9.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Oklahoma by 1–8 | 21.5% |
| Oklahoma by 9–16 | 19.5% |
| Oklahoma by 17+ | 41.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Zvada, 32 yds missed · 90% expected
- D. Zvada, 42 yds made · 74% expected
- D. Zvada, 35 yds made · 86% expected
- T. Sandell, 42 yds missed · 69% expected
- T. Sandell, 21 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Michigan 3 for 31 yards, Oklahoma 5 for 48 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:33 | False Start on Oklahoma, 3 yards · pre-snap | +1% MICH +0.5 pts |
| Q1 5:00 | Face Mask on Oklahoma, 15 yards | +4% MICH +2.3 pts |
| Q2 7:23 | Roughing the Kicker on Oklahoma, 15 yards | +6% MICH +3.1 pts |
| Q2 6:50 | Holding on Oklahoma, 10 yards | +3% MICH +1.3 pts |
| Q2 2:01 | Personal Foul on Michigan, 15 yards | +2% OU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 9:41 | Holding on Michigan, 7 yards | +1% OU +1.1 pts |
| Q4 2:47 | Face Mask on Michigan, 9 yards | 0% OU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:33 | Offside on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MICH +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Oklahoma’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:14 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% OU | OU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:46 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% OU | OU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:02 | Michigan converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +5% MICH | MICH: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 7:23 | Roughing the Kicker on Oklahoma, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% MICH | MICH: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q2 3:17 | D. Zvada missed a 32-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him | +7% OU | MICH: End of half |
| 6 | Q3 11:14 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +5% OU | OU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 8:03 | Oklahoma fumbled and Michigan recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% MICH | OU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 12:32 | T. Sandell missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him | +5% MICH | OU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Michigan 27% · Oklahoma 73%
- Final margin
- Oklahoma by 11
- Luck in points
- 7.0 for Oklahoma
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oklahoma by 4.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Michigan 16% · Oklahoma 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Michigan · 
Oklahoma
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Arizona State at Mississippi State MSST 24–20 · replay 47% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- South Florida at Florida USF 18–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- South Carolina State at South Carolina SC 38–10 · replay 68% for the winner
- Kansas at Missouri MIZ 42–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Kentucky MISS 30–23 · replay 78% for the winner
- Western Illinois at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- San José State at Texas TEX 38–7 · replay 86% for the winner