Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress

Michigan Wolverines: luck and expected wins

Michigan is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.2 wins. Luck cost 0.2: the 48th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 2–1.

2026, game by game

How often Michigan wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Western Michigan	W 13–12	86%	+14
Week 2	vs Oklahoma	W 17–10	48%	+52
Week 3	vs UTEP	W 52–17	100%	0
Week 4	vs Iowa	L 19–20	87%	−87

Wk 1 +14 vs WMU

Wk 2 +52 vs OU

Wk 3 0 vs UTEP

Wk 4 −87 vs IOWA

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Michigan win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Minnesota	Michigan by 2.7	57%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Penn State	Penn State by 3.4	42%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs Indiana	Indiana by 11.9	24%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Rutgers	Michigan by 10.2	73%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Michigan State	Michigan by 9.3	71%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Oregon	Oregon by 11.4	25%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs UCLA	Michigan by 0.5	51%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Ohio State	Ohio State by 19.9	12%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Michigan’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.05	0.0
Fumble bounces	−0.03	−3.4
3rd & 4th downs	−0.17	+9.9

Luckiest wins

Wins Michigan takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 4	@ Nebraska	W 30–27	39%	+61
2026 Week 2	vs Oklahoma	W 17–10	48%	+52
2026 Week 1	vs Western Michigan	W 13–12	86%	+14
2025 Week 10	vs Purdue	W 21–16	89%	+11
2025 Week 6	vs Wisconsin	W 24–10	89%	+11

Unluckiest losses

Losses Michigan would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 4	vs Iowa	L 19–20	87%	−87
2025 Week 2	@ Oklahoma	L 13–24	16%	−16
2025 Week 7	@ USC	L 13–31	15%	−15
2025 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl	vs Texas	L 27–41	7%	−7
2025 Week 14	vs Ohio State	L 9–27	5%	−5

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	9–3	8.2	+0.8	3–0	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs New Mexico	W 34–17	93%	+7
Week 2	@ Oklahoma	L 13–24	16%	−16
Week 3	vs Central Michigan	W 63–3	100%	0
Week 4	@ Nebraska	W 30–27	39%	+61
Week 6	vs Wisconsin	W 24–10	89%	+11
Week 7	@ USC	L 13–31	15%	−15
Week 8	vs Washington	W 24–7	90%	+10
Week 9	@ Michigan State	W 31–20	93%	+7
Week 10	vs Purdue	W 21–16	89%	+11
Week 12	vs Northwestern	W 24–22	99%	+1
Week 13	@ Maryland	W 45–20	93%	+7
Week 14	vs Ohio State	L 9–27	5%	−5
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl	vs Texas	L 27–41	7%	−7