Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
New Mexico at Michigan, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Michigan beat New Mexico 34–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Michigan wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Michigan was a 99% favorite.
Final
 New Mexico Lobos | 17 |
|---|---|
 Michigan Wolverines | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Michigan about even · −7 New Mexico
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. New Mexico wins 1, Michigan wins 9.
- 1 UNM 23 MICH 17
- 2 UNM 20 MICH 23
- 3 UNM 3 MICH 10
- 4 UNM 17 MICH 28
- 5 UNM 13 MICH 28
- 6 UNM 13 MICH 31
- 7 UNM 17 MICH 38
- 8 UNM 10 MICH 37
- 9 UNM 19 MICH 50
- 10 UNM 7 MICH 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
New Mexico wins 7% of them, Michigan 93%. The line is what actually happened: Michigan by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| New Mexico by 17+ | 0.4% |
| New Mexico by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| New Mexico by 1–8 | 5.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Michigan by 1–8 | 14.2% |
| Michigan by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| Michigan by 17+ | 59.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Zvada, 21 yds made · 99% expected
- L. Drzewiecki, 44 yds made · 63% expected
- D. Zvada, 39 yds made · 80% expected
Penalties: New Mexico 1 for 5 yards, Michigan 8 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 4:49 | Pass Interference on Michigan, 9 yards | 0% UNM +1.3 pts |
| Q2 1:01 | False Start on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNM +0.4 pts |
| Q3 13:50 | False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MICH +0.9 pts |
| Q3 9:34 | Targeting on Michigan, 15 yards | 0% UNM +0.5 pts |
| Q3 5:33 | Offside on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNM +0.5 pts |
| Q3 2:35 | Pass Interference on Michigan, 1 yard | 0% UNM +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:28 | Holding on Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% UNM +2.1 pts |
| Q4 1:54 | Pass Interference on Michigan, 15 yards | 0% UNM +0.8 pts |
| Q4 0:28 | Offside on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNM +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Michigan’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:24 | Michigan converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +0% MICH | MICH: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 1:24 | Michigan converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% MICH | MICH: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 8:29 | New Mexico converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% UNM | UNM: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 4:32 | New Mexico converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +0% UNM | UNM: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 2:35 | Pass Interference on Michigan, 1 yardJudgment calls | +0% UNM | UNM: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 1:28 | Holding on Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% UNM | UNM: Turnover |
| 7 | Q3 0:36 | Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% UNM | MICH: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 14:11 | New Mexico was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% MICH | UNM: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
New Mexico 0% · Michigan 100%
- Final margin
- Michigan by 17
- Luck in points
- 4.9 for New Mexico
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Michigan by 21.9
- Replay with same day's form
- New Mexico 7% · Michigan 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
New Mexico · 
Michigan
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Central Michigan at San José State CMU 16–14 · replay 65% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Idaho State at UNLV UNLV 38–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Arizona ARIZ 40–6 · replay 90% for the winner