Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Texas at Ohio State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Ohio State beat Texas 14–7, but the replays lean toward Texas: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff Ohio State was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:40 left): Texas was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 11 points of win probability to Ohio State.
Final
 Texas Longhorns | 7 |
|---|---|
 Ohio State Buckeyes | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +62 Ohio State very lucky · −62 Texas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas wins 6, Ohio State wins 4.
- 1 TEX 28 OSU 3
- 2 TEX 17 OSU 0
- 3 TEX 13 OSU 0
- 4 TEX 10 OSU 0
- 5 TEX 20 OSU 14
- 6 TEX 3 OSU 0
- 7 TEX 7 OSU 10
- 8 TEX 14 OSU 20
- 9 TEX 7 OSU 17
- 10 TEX 0 OSU 17
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas wins 62% of them, Ohio State 38%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ohio State by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas by 17+ | 16.9% |
| Texas by 9–16 | 20.0% |
| Texas by 1–8 | 23.2% |
| Level after regulation | 8.5% |
| Ohio State by 1–8 | 18.4% |
| Ohio State by 9–16 | 9.0% |
| Ohio State by 17+ | 4.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Texas 6 for 50 yards, Ohio State 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OSU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 8:29 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% OSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Face Mask on Texas, 15 yards | +4% OSU +1.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards | +2% OSU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 3:58 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards | +2% OSU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Illegal Formation on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEX +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:56 | Holding on Ohio State, 10 yards | 0% TEX +1.2 pts |
| Q4 4:10 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OSU +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Ohio State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:29 | Ohio State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedTexas was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedFalse Start on Texas, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% TEX | OSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 6:34 | Ohio State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +3% OSU | OSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 3:35 | Texas was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +2% OSU | TEX: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 15:00 | Face Mask on Texas, 15 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Texas, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% OSU | OSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 9:41 | Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +2% TEX | OSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 15:00 | Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +3% TEX | OSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 6:40 | Texas was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expectedOhio State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +11% OSU | TEX: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 1:27 | Texas was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +3% OSU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas 42% · Ohio State 58%
- Final margin
- Ohio State by 7
- Luck in points
- 5.9 for Ohio State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio State by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas 62% · Ohio State 38% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Texas · 
Ohio State
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Syracuse vs Tennessee TENN 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan State MSU 23–6 · replay 91% for the winner