Week 1 2025 · August 29, 2025
Western Michigan at Michigan State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Michigan State beat Western Michigan 23–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Michigan State wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Michigan State was an 88% favorite.
Final
 Western Michigan Broncos | 6 |
|---|---|
 Michigan State Spartans | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Michigan State about even · −9 Western Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Michigan wins 1, Michigan State wins 9.
- 1 WMU 16 MSU 10
- 2 WMU 7 MSU 11
- 3 WMU 16 MSU 25
- 4 WMU 16 MSU 28
- 5 WMU 8 MSU 24
- 6 WMU 10 MSU 31
- 7 WMU 3 MSU 27
- 8 WMU 21 MSU 50
- 9 WMU 0 MSU 34
- 10 WMU 0 MSU 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Michigan wins 9% of them, Michigan State 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Michigan State by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Michigan by 17+ | 0.7% |
| Western Michigan by 9–16 | 2.0% |
| Western Michigan by 1–8 | 5.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Michigan State by 1–8 | 12.7% |
| Michigan State by 9–16 | 15.0% |
| Michigan State by 17+ | 63.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Eckley, 46 yds missed · 61% expected
- H. Smith, 46 yds missed · 61% expected
Penalties: Western Michigan 6 for 21 yards, Michigan State 3 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offside on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MSU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Pass Interference on Western Michigan, 11 yards | +1% MSU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 10:43 | Delay of Game on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WMU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 11:42 | False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WMU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 11:34 | Intentional Grounding on Western Michigan, 0 yards | 0% MSU 0.0 pts |
| Q4 11:34 | Holding on Western Michigan, 0 yards | 0% MSU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 11:34 | False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WMU +1.1 pts |
| Q4 11:34 | False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WMU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Intentional Grounding on Western Michigan, 0 yards | 0% MSU 0.0 pts |
When it happened
Michigan State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Western Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedOffside on Western Michigan, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% MSU | WMU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 11:12 | Western Michigan was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedMichigan State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expectedMichigan State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +4% MSU | WMU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 5:25 | Western Michigan converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +1% WMU | WMU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 2:35 | Western Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedWestern Michigan fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% WMU | WMU: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 15:00 | Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedMichigan State converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedPass Interference on Western Michigan, 11 yardsJudgment calls | +1% MSU | MSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 10:43 | Western Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedDelay of Game on Western Michigan, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% WMU | WMU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 4:15 | Michigan State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +0% MSU | MSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 2:51 | Western Michigan’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedReturn touchdown by Western MichiganSpecial teams | +1% MSU | WMU: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Michigan 1% · Michigan State 99%
- Final margin
- Michigan State by 17
- Luck in points
- 1.0 for Michigan State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Michigan State by 16.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Michigan 9% · Michigan State 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Western Michigan · 
Michigan State
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Holy Cross at Northern Illinois NIU 19–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Merrimack at Kent State KENT 21–17 · replay 63% for the winner
- Central Michigan at San José State CMU 16–14 · replay 65% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Temple at Massachusetts TEM 42–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Wyoming at Akron WYO 10–0 · replay 91% for the winner