Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Merrimack at Kent State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Kent State beat Merrimack 21–17, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Kent State was a 64% favorite.
Final
 Merrimack Warriors | 17 |
|---|---|
 Kent State Golden Flashes | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Kent State lucky · −37 Merrimack
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Merrimack wins 4, Kent State wins 6.
- 1 MRMK 28 KENT 7
- 2 MRMK 41 KENT 27
- 3 MRMK 34 KENT 27
- 4 MRMK 31 KENT 28
- 5 MRMK 24 KENT 27
- 6 MRMK 10 KENT 17
- 7 MRMK 14 KENT 24
- 8 MRMK 3 KENT 17
- 9 MRMK 3 KENT 23
- 10 MRMK 7 KENT 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Merrimack wins 37% of them, Kent State 63%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kent State by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Merrimack by 17+ | 8.8% |
| Merrimack by 9–16 | 10.6% |
| Merrimack by 1–8 | 15.3% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| Kent State by 1–8 | 20.7% |
| Kent State by 9–16 | 17.3% |
| Kent State by 17+ | 22.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- W. Hryszko, 27 yds missed · 88% expected
- C. Thai, 26 yds made · 89% expected
- C. Thai, 36 yds missed · 78% expected
- C. Thai, 37 yds made · 76% expected
- C. Thai, 45 yds made · 61% expected
Penalties: Merrimack 9 for 95 yards, Kent State 7 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:57 | False Start on Merrimack, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KENT +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:16 | Penalty on Merrimack, 15 yards | +3% KENT +1.6 pts |
| Q2 9:51 | Illegal Formation on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MRMK +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:31 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Merrimack, 15 yards | +4% KENT +1.7 pts |
| Q2 6:10 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Merrimack, 15 yards | +2% KENT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:17 | False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MRMK +0.4 pts |
| Q2 2:17 | Delay of Game on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KENT +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:57 | Penalty on Merrimack, 10 yards | +1% KENT +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:57 | Holding on Kent State, 10 yards | +1% MRMK +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:30 | Face Mask on Kent State, 15 yards | +4% MRMK +1.6 pts |
| Q3 14:53 | Holding on Kent State, 20 yards | +3% MRMK +1.2 pts |
| Q3 14:53 | Delay of Game on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MRMK +0.4 pts |
| Q3 9:56 | Penalty on Merrimack, 10 yards | +1% KENT +0.6 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Illegal Formation on Merrimack, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KENT +0.4 pts |
| Q4 7:59 | Penalty on Merrimack, 15 yards | +5% KENT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:59 | False Start on Merrimack, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% KENT +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Kent State’s chance of winning
As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:57 | Merrimack was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedFalse Start on Merrimack, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% MRMK | MRMK: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 1:43 | W. Hryszko missed a 27-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +7% MRMK | KENT: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 7:31 | Merrimack was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Merrimack, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% KENT | MRMK: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 6:10 | Kent State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Merrimack, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% KENT | KENT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 0:01 | C. Thai made a 26-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +7% KENT | MRMK: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q3 10:41 | C. Thai missed a 36-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him | +7% KENT | MRMK: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 8:38 | Merrimack’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +6% MRMK | MRMK: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 1:42 | Merrimack was stopped on 4th & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +6% KENT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Merrimack 14% · Kent State 86%
- Final margin
- Kent State by 4
- Luck in points
- 2.3 for Merrimack
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kent State by 6.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Merrimack 37% · Kent State 63% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Merrimack · 
Kent State
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