Week 1 2025 · August 28, 2025
Buffalo at Minnesota, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Minnesota beat Buffalo 23–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Minnesota wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Minnesota was an 86% favorite.
Final
 Buffalo Bulls | 10 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Golden Gophers | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Minnesota about even · −1 Buffalo
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Buffalo wins 0, Minnesota wins 10.
- 1 BUF 10 MINN 17
- 2 BUF 9 MINN 20
- 3 BUF 14 MINN 31
- 4 BUF 7 MINN 28
- 5 BUF 6 MINN 30
- 6 BUF 6 MINN 34
- 7 BUF 7 MINN 38
- 8 BUF 14 MINN 48
- 9 BUF 7 MINN 45
- 10 BUF 0 MINN 46
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Buffalo wins 1% of them, Minnesota 99%. The line is what actually happened: Minnesota by 13.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Buffalo by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Buffalo by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Buffalo by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Minnesota by 1–8 | 4.6% |
| Minnesota by 9–16 | 9.6% |
| Minnesota by 17+ | 84.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Howes, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- J. Howes, 48 yds missed · 58% expected
- B. Denaburg, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- B. Denaburg, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- B. Denaburg, 25 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Buffalo 3 for 35 yards, Minnesota 2 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:36 | Offside on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BUF +1.2 pts |
| Q2 14:15 | Delay of Game on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BUF +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:16 | Personal Foul on Buffalo, 15 yards | 0% MINN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:30 | Pass Interference on Buffalo, 15 yards | 0% MINN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 2:24 | Delay of Game on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MINN +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Minnesota’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:10 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +2% BUF | MINN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 4:49 | Minnesota was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +3% BUF | MINN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 11:26 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +2% MINN | MINN: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 5:24 | Buffalo converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +2% BUF | BUF: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q2 1:17 | J. Howes missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +3% MINN | BUF: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 4:39 | Minnesota was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% BUF | MINN: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 1:16 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +4% MINN | MINN: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 11:34 | Minnesota was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +3% BUF | MINN: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Buffalo 45% · Minnesota 55%
- Final margin
- Minnesota by 13
- Luck in points
- 12.3 for Minnesota
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Minnesota by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Buffalo 1% · Minnesota 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Buffalo · 
Minnesota
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Holy Cross at Northern Illinois NIU 19–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Merrimack at Kent State KENT 21–17 · replay 63% for the winner
- Central Michigan at San José State CMU 16–14 · replay 65% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Temple at Massachusetts TEM 42–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan State MSU 23–6 · replay 91% for the winner