Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Temple at Massachusetts, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Temple beat Massachusetts 42–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Temple wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Temple was a 58% favorite.
Final
 Temple Owls | 42 |
|---|---|
 Massachusetts Minutemen | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Temple about even · −9 Massachusetts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Temple wins 9, Massachusetts wins 1.
- 1 TEM 62 MASS 21
- 2 TEM 41 MASS 7
- 3 TEM 42 MASS 14
- 4 TEM 42 MASS 17
- 5 TEM 38 MASS 17
- 6 TEM 38 MASS 20
- 7 TEM 35 MASS 21
- 8 TEM 34 MASS 24
- 9 TEM 28 MASS 24
- 10 TEM 35 MASS 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Temple wins 91% of them, Massachusetts 9%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Temple by 32.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Temple by 17+ | 59.5% |
| Temple by 9–16 | 18.9% |
| Temple by 1–8 | 12.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Massachusetts by 1–8 | 5.9% |
| Massachusetts by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Massachusetts by 17+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Temple 5 for 57 yards, Massachusetts 6 for 32 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:17 | Pass Interference on Temple, 15 yards | +2% MASS +1.0 pts |
| Q1 11:20 | Holding on Temple, 10 yards | +1% MASS +0.6 pts |
| Q1 5:02 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MASS +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:37 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEM +0.5 pts |
| Q2 7:48 | Penalty on Massachusetts, 0 yards | 0% TEM 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:59 | Penalty on Massachusetts, 12 yards | +1% TEM +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:00 | Penalty on Massachusetts, 5 yards | 0% TEM 0.0 pts |
| Q3 13:05 | Holding on Temple, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% MASS +2.8 pts |
| Q3 8:01 | Personal Foul on Temple, 15 yards | +2% MASS +2.5 pts |
| Q3 4:54 | Holding on Temple, 7 yards | +2% MASS +2.1 pts |
| Q4 3:57 | Offside on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEM +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Massachusetts’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:52 | Massachusetts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +3% MASS | MASS: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:04 | Temple converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +3% TEM | TEM: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:33 | Temple converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +4% TEM | TEM: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 3:28 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% MASS | MASS: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 13:37 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +5% MASS | MASS: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 12:28 | Massachusetts fumbled and Temple recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% TEM | MASS: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 8:26 | Massachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% TEM | MASS: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q2 1:11 | Temple converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% MASS | TEM: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Temple 100% · Massachusetts 0%
- Final margin
- Temple by 32
- Luck in points
- 9.7 for Temple
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Temple by 22.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Temple 91% · Massachusetts 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Temple · 
Massachusetts
More from Week 1 2025
- Tarleton State at Army TAR 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- Holy Cross at Northern Illinois NIU 19–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Merrimack at Kent State KENT 21–17 · replay 63% for the winner
- Central Michigan at San José State CMU 16–14 · replay 65% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Rice at Louisiana RICE 14–12 · replay 75% for the winner
- East Carolina at NC State NCSU 24–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Alabama State at UAB UAB 52–42 · replay 89% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner