Week 1 2025 · August 29, 2025
Tarleton State at Army, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Tarleton State beat Army 30–27, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Army wins 9 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 38 points of win probability to Tarleton State.
Before kickoff Army was an 83% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (2OT): B. Larson made a 37-yard field goal, worth 22 points of win probability to Tarleton State.
Final (OT)
 Tarleton State Texans | 30 |
|---|---|
 Army Black Knights | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +87 Tarleton State very lucky · −87 Army
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tarleton State wins 1, Army wins 9.
- 1 TAR 34 ARMY 26
- 2 TAR 20 ARMY 23
- 3 TAR 21 ARMY 27
- 4 TAR 14 ARMY 24
- 5 TAR 14 ARMY 27
- 6 TAR 21 ARMY 37
- 7 TAR 7 ARMY 27
- 8 TAR 0 ARMY 24
- 9 TAR 0 ARMY 28
- 10 TAR 17 ARMY 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Tarleton State wins 13% of them, Army 87%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tarleton State by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tarleton State by 17+ | 1.3% |
| Tarleton State by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Tarleton State by 1–8 | 8.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Army by 1–8 | 18.2% |
| Army by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| Army by 17+ | 48.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. Larson, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- D. Jones, 24 yds made · 92% expected
- D. Jones, 43 yds missed · 67% expected
- B. Larson, 28 yds made · 89% expected
- D. Jones, 40 yds made · 72% expected
- B. Larson, 37 yds made · 78% expected
Penalties: Tarleton State 10 for 73 yards, Army 5 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:05 | Offside on Army, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TAR +0.3 pts |
| Q1 8:43 | False Start on Tarleton State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARMY +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:50 | False Start on Army, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARMY +1.0 pts |
| Q2 1:15 | Holding on Tarleton State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +16% ARMY +6.4 pts |
| Q2 1:12 | False Start on Tarleton State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARMY +0.1 pts |
| Q3 14:19 | Penalty on Tarleton State, 0 yards | +1% ARMY +1.0 pts |
| Q3 13:24 | Holding on Army, 0 yards | 0% TAR 0.0 pts |
| Q3 9:38 | Pass Interference on Tarleton State, 8 yards | +3% ARMY +2.4 pts |
| Q3 7:14 | Holding on Tarleton State, 10 yards | +1% ARMY +1.3 pts |
| Q3 5:33 | False Start on Tarleton State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARMY +1.2 pts |
| Q3 3:54 | Pass Interference on Tarleton State, 15 yards | +5% ARMY +3.4 pts |
| Q3 2:59 | Holding on Army, 10 yards | 0% ARMY 0.0 pts |
| Q3 1:59 | Ineligible Downfield on Army, 5 yards | +2% TAR +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:44 | Holding on Tarleton State, 10 yards | +7% ARMY +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:09 | Illegal Substitution on Tarleton State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% TAR +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Army’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 1:15 | Holding on Tarleton State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +16% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q4 9:55 | Army fumbled and Tarleton State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% TAR | ARMY: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 9:05 | Tarleton State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +7% TAR | TAR: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 1:44 | Holding on Tarleton State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% ARMY | ARMY: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 0:07 | D. Jones missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him | +15% TAR | – |
| 6 | OT | B. Larson made a 28-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +10% ARMY | – |
| 7 | OT | D. Jones made a 40-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him | +10% TAR | – |
| 8 | 2OT | The game turned hereB. Larson made a 37-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him | +22% TAR | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tarleton State 29% · Army 71%
- Final margin
- Tarleton State by 3
- Luck in points
- 6.9 for Tarleton State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Army by 3.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Tarleton State 13% · Army 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Tarleton State · 
Army
More from Week 1 2025
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
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- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
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- UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Temple at Massachusetts TEM 42–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee APSU 34–14 · replay 92% for the winner
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- Chattanooga at Memphis MEM 45–10 · replay 99% for the winner