luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025

Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Austin Peay beat Middle Tennessee 34–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Austin Peay wins 9 of 10.

An off day for Middle Tennessee: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Austin Peay it would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers

Before kickoff Middle Tennessee was an 86% favorite.

Final

Austin Peay Governors 34
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 14

August 30, 2025 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Closing line: Middle Tennessee −16.5

Luck index +8 Austin Peay about even · −8 Middle Tennessee

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Austin Peay wins 9, Middle Tennessee wins 1.

  1. 1 APSU 45 MTSU 7
  2. 2 APSU 30 MTSU 0
  3. 3 APSU 28 MTSU 3
  4. 4 APSU 30 MTSU 7
  5. 5 APSU 23 MTSU 3
  6. 6 APSU 21 MTSU 7
  7. 7 APSU 14 MTSU 3
  8. 8 APSU 14 MTSU 6
  9. 9 APSU 23 MTSU 20
  10. 10 APSU 14 MTSU 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Middle Tennessee

Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Austin Peay it would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.

67 points apart for Middle Tennessee: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Austin Peay offenseEPA per play gained +0.08 +0.06 better by 0.01
Austin Peay defenseEPA per play allowed −0.52 +0.09 better by 0.60
Middle Tennessee offenseEPA per play gained −0.52 +0.07 worse by 0.58
Middle Tennessee defenseEPA per play allowed +0.08 +0.13 better by 0.05

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Austin Peay wins 92% of them, Middle Tennessee 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Austin Peay by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Austin Peay by 17+53.4%
Austin Peay by 9–1623.8%
Austin Peay by 1–813.7%
Level after regulation1.0%
Middle Tennessee by 1–86.3%
Middle Tennessee by 9–161.5%
Middle Tennessee by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +16.9 points to Austin Peay: the final margin was Austin Peay by 20, without the luck Austin Peay by 3.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Smith, 40 yds made · 72% expected
  • C. Smith, 36 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Austin Peay 8 for 77 yards, Middle Tennessee 4 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 7:34 Delay of Game on Austin Peay, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MTSU +0.4 pts
Q2 3:40 Holding on Austin Peay, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% MTSU +1.7 pts
Q2 0:53 Offside on Austin Peay, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MTSU +0.3 pts
Q2 0:48 Pass Interference on Austin Peay, 15 yards +7% APSU +1.7 pts
Q2 0:45 Penalty on Austin Peay, 12 yards +1% MTSU +0.7 pts
Q3 14:10 Penalty on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards +4% APSU +1.6 pts
Q3 13:05 Pass Interference on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards 0% APSU +0.1 pts
Q3 7:08 False Start on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% APSU +0.9 pts
Q3 4:11 Roughing the Passer on Austin Peay, 15 yards +7% MTSU +2.7 pts
Q4 14:55 Delay of Game on Austin Peay, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MTSU +0.5 pts
Q4 13:39 Holding on Austin Peay, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% MTSU +2.7 pts
Q4 6:59 Penalty on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards 0% APSU +1.1 pts

When it happened

Middle Tennessee’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Middle Tennessee was ahead in it, below while Austin Peay was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:44 Middle Tennessee was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% APSU MTSU: Punt
2 Q1 3:01 Austin Peay converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +4% APSU APSU: Touchdown
3 Q2 8:59 Austin Peay converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% APSU APSU: Touchdown
4 Q2 6:36 Austin Peay converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% APSU APSU: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:48 Pass Interference on Austin Peay, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% APSU MTSU: Touchdown
6 Q3 4:11 Roughing the Passer on Austin Peay, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% MTSU MTSU: Touchdown
7 Q4 14:55 Middle Tennessee was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedDelay of Game on Austin Peay, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% APSU MTSU: Punt
8 Q4 13:39 Holding on Austin Peay, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% MTSU MTSU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Austin Peay 69% · Middle Tennessee 31%

Final margin
Austin Peay by 20
Luck in points
16.9 for Austin Peay
Luck-adjusted margin
Austin Peay by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Austin Peay 92% · Middle Tennessee 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Austin Peay · Middle Tennessee

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