luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 29, 2025

UNLV vs Sam Houston, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

UNLV beat Sam Houston 38–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UNLV wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff UNLV was an 81% favorite.

Final

UNLV Rebels 38
Sam Houston Bearkats 21

August 29, 2025 · BBVA Compass Stadium · Closing line: UNLV −13.5

Luck index +1 UNLV about even · −1 Sam Houston

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UNLV wins 10, Sam Houston wins 0.

  1. 1 UNLV 55 SHSU 0
  2. 2 UNLV 54 SHSU 7
  3. 3 UNLV 49 SHSU 7
  4. 4 UNLV 44 SHSU 6
  5. 5 UNLV 49 SHSU 14
  6. 6 UNLV 42 SHSU 10
  7. 7 UNLV 28 SHSU 0
  8. 8 UNLV 31 SHSU 7
  9. 9 UNLV 42 SHSU 24
  10. 10 UNLV 37 SHSU 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UNLV wins 99% of them, Sam Houston 1%. The line is what actually happened: UNLV by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UNLV by 17+93.0%
UNLV by 9–164.5%
UNLV by 1–81.7%
Level after regulation0.1%
Sam Houston by 1–80.5%
Sam Houston by 9–160.1%
Sam Houston by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.4 points to UNLV: the final margin was UNLV by 17, without the luck UNLV by 5.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • R. Villela, 29 yds made · 86% expected
  • R. Lopez, 33 yds missed · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UNLV 7 for 86 yards, Sam Houston 6 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:19 Pass Interference on UNLV, 15 yards +2% SHSU +1.6 pts
Q1 12:19 Offside on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SHSU +0.3 pts
Q1 8:42 Offside on Sam Houston, 3 yards · pre-snap +4% SHSU +0.7 pts
Q2 14:49 Holding on UNLV, 10 yards +1% SHSU +0.6 pts
Q2 11:43 Pass Interference on UNLV, 15 yards +1% SHSU +0.9 pts
Q2 9:36 Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 15 yards +1% UNLV +0.9 pts
Q2 9:36 Offside on UNLV, 12 yards · pre-snap +1% SHSU +1.5 pts
Q2 7:15 Illegal Forward Pass on Sam Houston, 4 yards 0% UNLV +0.2 pts
Q3 7:22 Pass Interference on UNLV, 14 yards 0% SHSU +1.6 pts
Q4 14:15 Delay of Game on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNLV +0.2 pts
Q4 9:57 Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 15 yards +1% UNLV +1.6 pts
Q4 4:57 Pass Interference on UNLV, 15 yards 0% SHSU +1.6 pts
Q4 2:00 Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards 0% UNLV +0.6 pts

When it happened

Sam Houston’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Sam Houston was ahead in it, below while UNLV was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 UNLV converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +2% SHSU UNLV: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:19 Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedSam Houston converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedPass Interference on UNLV, 15 yardsJudgment callsOffside on UNLV, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% SHSU SHSU: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:42 UNLV was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedUNLV converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expectedUNLV converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expectedOffside on Sam Houston, 3 yardsPre-snap flags +4% SHSU UNLV: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:32 UNLV converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +2% UNLV UNLV: Field goal
5 Q2 11:43 Pass Interference on UNLV, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% SHSU SHSU: Missed field goal
6 Q2 10:36 UNLV was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +1% SHSU UNLV: Field goal
7 Q2 7:15 Illegal Forward Pass on Sam Houston, 4 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by UNLVSpecial teams +1% SHSU UNLV: End of half
8 Q2 1:41 UNLV fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50R. Lopez missed a 33-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him +1% UNLV UNLV: End of half

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UNLV 83% · Sam Houston 17%

Final margin
UNLV by 17
Luck in points
11.4 for UNLV
Luck-adjusted margin
UNLV by 5.6
Replay with same day's form
UNLV 99% · Sam Houston 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · UNLV · Sam Houston

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