Conference USA · 2026 season, in progress
Sam Houston Bearkats: luck and expected wins
Sam Houston is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.2 wins. Luck cost 1.2: the 7th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–2.
2026, game by game
How often Sam Houston wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Troy | L 21–24 | 45% | −45 |
| Week 2 | vs Tulsa | L 17–23 | 73% | −73 |
| Week 3 | vs Nicholls | W 59–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | @ Texas Tech | L 14–49 | 0% | 0 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Sam Houston win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 · Oct 8 | at Liberty |  Liberty by 14.0 | 19% |
| Week 7 · Oct 14 | vs Western Kentucky |  Sam Houston by 3.2 | 58% |
| Week 8 · Oct 21 | vs New Mexico State | Sam Houston by 5.8 | 64% |
| Week 9 · Oct 27 | at Missouri State |  Missouri State by 3.7 | 41% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at Jacksonville State |  Jacksonville State by 9.5 | 29% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Kennesaw State |  Kennesaw State by 0.9 | 48% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Middle Tennessee | Sam Houston by 4.7 | 61% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Florida International |  Florida International by 5.8 | 37% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Sam Houston’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.02 | −3.7 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.05 | −3.8 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Sam Houston takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 11 | @ Oregon State | W 21–17 | 2% | +98 |
| 2025 Week 12 | vs Delaware | W 26–23 | 46% | +54 |
| 2026 Week 3 | vs Nicholls | W 59–0 | 100% | 0 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Sam Houston would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 2 | vs Tulsa | L 17–23 | 73% | −73 |
| 2026 Week 1 | @ Troy | L 21–24 | 45% | −45 |
| 2025 Week 7 | vs Jacksonville State | L 27–29 | 36% | −36 |
| 2025 Week 1 | @ Western Kentucky | L 24–41 | 29% | −29 |
| 2025 Week 13 | @ Middle Tennessee | L 17–31 | 19% | −19 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2–10 | 1.7 | +0.3 | 2–1 | – |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Western Kentucky | L 24–41 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 1 | vs UNLV | L 21–38 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 2 | @ Hawai'i | L 20–37 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 4 | @ Texas | L 0–55 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 6 | @ New Mexico State | L 10–37 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 7 | vs Jacksonville State | L 27–29 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 8 | vs UTEP | L 17–35 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 10 | @ Louisiana Tech | L 14–55 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 11 | @ Oregon State | W 21–17 | 2% | +98 |
| Week 12 | vs Delaware | W 26–23 | 46% | +54 |
| Week 13 | @ Middle Tennessee | L 17–31 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 14 | vs Florida International | L 16–56 | 0% | 0 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Conference USA teams by luck
- Conference USA:
Delaware, Florida International, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Liberty, 
Middle Tennessee, Missouri State, 
New Mexico State, 
Western Kentucky
How many wins does Sam Houston have in 2026?
1–3 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.2 wins.
Was Sam Houston lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Unlucky so far: −1.2 wins of luck, the 7th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Sam Houston’s luckiest season?
2025: 2–10 from play worth 1.7 wins, +0.3 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 1–3 from play worth 2.2 (−1.2).