Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Sam Houston at Oregon State, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Sam Houston beat Oregon State 21–17, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Oregon State wins 10 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 23 points of win probability to Sam Houston.
Before kickoff Oregon State was a 91% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:25 left): Oregon State was stopped on 4th & 3, worth 15 points of win probability to Sam Houston.
Final
 Sam Houston Bearkats | 21 |
|---|---|
 Oregon State Beavers | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +98 Sam Houston very lucky · −98 Oregon State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sam Houston wins 0, Oregon State wins 10.
- 1 SHSU 16 ORST 20
- 2 SHSU 3 ORST 13
- 3 SHSU 13 ORST 28
- 4 SHSU 13 ORST 31
- 5 SHSU 0 ORST 21
- 6 SHSU 7 ORST 31
- 7 SHSU 10 ORST 37
- 8 SHSU 6 ORST 37
- 9 SHSU 10 ORST 46
- 10 SHSU 0 ORST 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Sam Houston wins 2% of them, Oregon State 98%. The line is what actually happened: Sam Houston by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sam Houston by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Sam Houston by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Sam Houston by 1–8 | 1.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Oregon State by 1–8 | 5.1% |
| Oregon State by 9–16 | 9.6% |
| Oregon State by 17+ | 83.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Ojeda, 33 yds made · 81% expected
- C. Pavon, 29 yds missed · 83% expected
- C. Ojeda, 42 yds missed · 67% expected
- C. Ojeda, 46 yds missed · 59% expected
- C. Pavon, 47 yds missed · 54% expected
Penalties: Sam Houston 5 for 53 yards, Oregon State 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:14 | Face Mask on Sam Houston, 15 yards | 0% ORST +1.6 pts |
| Q1 2:15 | Pass Interference on Oregon State, 15 yards | +1% SHSU +2.0 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Ineligible Downfield on Sam Houston, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +2% ORST +2.7 pts |
| Q2 10:30 | Ineligible Downfield on Oregon State, 5 yards | 0% SHSU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 7:38 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards | +1% ORST +1.7 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 13 yards | 0% ORST +0.4 pts |
| Q3 7:16 | Holding on Oregon State, 10 yards | +1% SHSU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 12:20 | Delay of Game on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SHSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 1:40 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% ORST +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Oregon State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 99%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 4:26 | Sam Houston converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +5% SHSU | SHSU: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q4 14:56 | C. Pavon missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 4 of 7 from 45+ before | +5% ORST | SHSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 7:05 | Oregon State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +12% ORST | ORST: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 5:05 | Oregon State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +10% SHSU | ORST: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 4:25 | Oregon State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +15% SHSU | ORST: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 1:40 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% ORST | ORST: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 1:01 | Oregon State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +7% SHSU | ORST: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:33 | Oregon State was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +11% SHSU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sam Houston 67% · Oregon State 33%
- Final margin
- Sam Houston by 4
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for Sam Houston
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sam Houston by 2.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Sam Houston 2% · Oregon State 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Sam Houston · 
Oregon State
More from Week 11 2025
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at New Mexico State KENN 24–21 · replay 61% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at UTEP JXST 30–27 · replay 65% for the winner
- Missouri State at Liberty MOST 21–17 · replay 76% for the winner
- Florida International at Middle Tennessee FIU 56–30 · replay 98% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan EMU 27–21 · replay 26% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner