luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025

Texas State at Louisiana, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

Louisiana beat Texas State 42–39, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Texas State wins 9 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 28 points of win probability to Louisiana.

Before kickoff Texas State was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:54 left): Louisiana converted 3rd & 13, worth 13 points of win probability to Louisiana.

Final

Texas State Bobcats 39
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 42

November 8, 2025 · Cajun Field · Closing line: Texas State −3.5

Luck index +86 Louisiana very lucky · −86 Texas State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texas State wins 9, Louisiana wins 1.

  1. 1 TXST 57 UL 17
  2. 2 TXST 37 UL 6
  3. 3 TXST 55 UL 28
  4. 4 TXST 44 UL 22
  5. 5 TXST 31 UL 13
  6. 6 TXST 38 UL 24
  7. 7 TXST 34 UL 24
  8. 8 TXST 45 UL 38
  9. 9 TXST 24 UL 21
  10. 10 TXST 28 UL 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texas State wins 86% of them, Louisiana 14%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texas State by 17+46.2%
Texas State by 9–1619.1%
Texas State by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation1.3%
Louisiana by 1–88.8%
Louisiana by 9–163.6%
Louisiana by 17+2.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +16.5 points to Louisiana: the final margin was Louisiana by 3, without the luck Texas State by 13.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • T. Robles, 25 yds made · 93% expected
  • T. Robles, 24 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texas State 10 for 99 yards, Louisiana 8 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:16 Holding on Texas State, 10 yards +5% UL +2.2 pts
Q1 7:58 Holding on Texas State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% UL +2.3 pts
Q1 6:23 Roughing the Passer on Louisiana, 7 yards +2% TXST +1.2 pts
Q1 2:12 False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TXST +0.9 pts
Q1 0:23 Illegal Block on Louisiana, 6 yards +1% TXST +0.4 pts
Q3 14:55 Holding on Louisiana, 7 yards 0% TXST +0.4 pts
Q3 9:52 False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TXST +0.7 pts
Q3 9:46 Personal Foul on Louisiana, 15 yards +3% TXST +2.8 pts
Q3 3:46 Pass Interference on Texas State, 15 yards, wiping out the play +7% UL +3.9 pts
Q3 1:55 Face Mask on Texas State, 15 yards +2% UL +2.2 pts
Q4 15:00 Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UL +2.1 pts
Q4 14:52 Face Mask on Texas State, 9 yards +1% UL +1.3 pts
Q4 4:05 Pass Interference on Louisiana, 15 yards +2% TXST +0.7 pts
Q4 3:19 Holding on Texas State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% UL +5.1 pts
Q4 2:35 Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UL +0.6 pts
Q4 2:35 Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UL +0.1 pts
Q4 1:22 Delay of Game on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TXST +0.3 pts
Q4 1:14 Unnecessary Roughness on Texas State, 15 yards +7% UL +1.6 pts

When it happened

Louisiana’s chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Louisiana was ahead in it, below while Texas State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:06 Louisiana converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +6% UL UL: Punt
2 Q2 13:35 Louisiana converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% UL UL: Touchdown
3 Q3 3:46 Pass Interference on Texas State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% UL UL: Touchdown
4 Q4 3:19 Holding on Texas State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% UL UL: End of game
5 Q4 3:12 Texas State converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% TXST –
6 Q4 2:54 Louisiana converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +13% UL UL: End of game
7 Q4 1:53 Louisiana converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +6% UL UL: End of game
8 Q4 1:14 Unnecessary Roughness on Texas State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% UL UL: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texas State 99% · Louisiana 1%

Final margin
Louisiana by 3
Luck in points
16.5 for Louisiana
Luck-adjusted margin
Texas State by 13.5
Replay with same day's form
Texas State 86% · Louisiana 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Texas State · Louisiana

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