Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Louisiana Tech at Delaware, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Delaware beat Louisiana Tech 25–24, but the replays lean toward Louisiana Tech: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 32 points of win probability to Delaware.
Before kickoff Louisiana Tech was a 64% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:12 left): N. Reed made a 51-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to Delaware.
Final
 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 24 |
|---|---|
 Delaware Blue Hens | 25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +75 Delaware very lucky · −75 Louisiana Tech
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Louisiana Tech wins 8, Delaware wins 2.
- 1 LT 38 DEL 3
- 2 LT 37 DEL 10
- 3 LT 24 DEL 3
- 4 LT 26 DEL 7
- 5 LT 31 DEL 17
- 6 LT 31 DEL 20
- 7 LT 17 DEL 10
- 8 LT 13 DEL 10
- 9 LT 24 DEL 28
- 10 LT 10 DEL 26
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Louisiana Tech wins 75% of them, Delaware 25%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Delaware by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech by 17+ | 34.5% |
| Louisiana Tech by 9–16 | 18.7% |
| Louisiana Tech by 1–8 | 18.7% |
| Level after regulation | 4.6% |
| Delaware by 1–8 | 12.9% |
| Delaware by 9–16 | 6.6% |
| Delaware by 17+ | 4.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Henderson, 34 yds missed · 82% expected
- N. Reed, 28 yds made · 86% expected
- N. Reed, 41 yds made · 68% expected
- D. Henderson, 49 yds missed · 55% expected
- N. Reed, 27 yds made · 87% expected
- D. Henderson, 38 yds made · 75% expected
- N. Reed, 51 yds made · 50% expected
Penalties: Louisiana Tech 8 for 88 yards, Delaware 11 for 99 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offside on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LT +1.2 pts |
| Q1 10:31 | Pass Interference on Delaware, 15 yards | +2% LT +1.3 pts |
| Q1 7:47 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards | +3% DEL +1.6 pts |
| Q1 2:59 | Offside on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 10:58 | Roughing the Passer on Delaware, 15 yards | +2% DEL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:21 | Delay of Game on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LT +0.6 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Holding on Delaware, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% LT +2.9 pts |
| Q3 12:05 | Face Mask on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | +5% DEL +1.6 pts |
| Q3 10:46 | Pass Interference on Delaware, 15 yards | +5% LT +1.7 pts |
| Q3 7:03 | Holding on Delaware, 9 yards | +5% LT +1.6 pts |
| Q3 2:44 | Illegal Substitution on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LT +1.0 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DEL +0.5 pts |
| Q4 9:09 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | +2% DEL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:02 | Holding on Delaware, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% LT +1.9 pts |
| Q4 6:41 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards | +3% DEL +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:09 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards | +8% DEL +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:09 | False Start on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LT +0.3 pts |
| Q4 2:23 | Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | +1% DEL +2.8 pts |
| Q4 2:23 | Face Mask on Louisiana Tech, 8 yards | +2% LT +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Delaware’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:47 | D. Henderson missed a 34-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for himHolding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +15% DEL | LT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 15:00 | Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedHolding on Delaware, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% LT | DEL: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 15:00 | Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedLouisiana Tech was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedFalse Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +9% DEL | LT: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 6:41 | Louisiana Tech was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expectedLouisiana Tech converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedHolding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% DEL | LT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 3:09 | Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedHolding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Delaware, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +11% DEL | DEL: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 2:23 | Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedPass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 15 yardsJudgment callsFace Mask on Louisiana Tech, 8 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by Louisiana TechSpecial teams | +9% LT | DEL: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 0:34 | Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedDelaware’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +15% LT | DEL: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:12 | The game turned hereN. Reed made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 1 of 3 from 45+ before | +16% DEL | DEL: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Louisiana Tech 58% · Delaware 42%
- Final margin
- Delaware by 1
- Luck in points
- 2.4 for Delaware
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisiana Tech by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Louisiana Tech 75% · Delaware 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Louisiana Tech · 
Delaware
More from Week 11 2025
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at New Mexico State KENN 24–21 · replay 61% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at UTEP JXST 30–27 · replay 65% for the winner
- Missouri State at Liberty MOST 21–17 · replay 76% for the winner
- Florida International at Middle Tennessee FIU 56–30 · replay 98% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan EMU 27–21 · replay 26% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner