Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Missouri State at Liberty, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Missouri State beat Liberty 21–17, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
An off day for Liberty: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Missouri State it would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%. The numbers
Before kickoff Liberty was a 69% favorite.
Final
 Missouri State Bears | 21 |
|---|---|
 Liberty Flames | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Missouri State about even · −24 Liberty
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Missouri State wins 8, Liberty wins 2.
- 1 MOST 41 LIB 10
- 2 MOST 27 LIB 3
- 3 MOST 34 LIB 14
- 4 MOST 23 LIB 7
- 5 MOST 20 LIB 7
- 6 MOST 19 LIB 10
- 7 MOST 30 LIB 24
- 8 MOST 16 LIB 13
- 9 MOST 7 LIB 10
- 10 MOST 13 LIB 29
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Liberty
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Missouri State it would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
40 points apart for Liberty: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.12 | +0.07 | better by 0.04 |
| Missouri State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.05 | worse by 0.02 |
| Liberty offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.09 | worse by 0.02 |
| Liberty defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.07 | worse by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Missouri State wins 76% of them, Liberty 24%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Missouri State by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Missouri State by 17+ | 32.8% |
| Missouri State by 9–16 | 19.7% |
| Missouri State by 1–8 | 19.9% |
| Level after regulation | 5.0% |
| Liberty by 1–8 | 13.3% |
| Liberty by 9–16 | 5.7% |
| Liberty by 17+ | 3.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- Y. Obeid, 47 yds missed · 61% expected
- J. Billingsley, 38 yds made · 75% expected
Penalties: Missouri State 5 for 22 yards, Liberty 7 for 77 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:56 | Personal Foul on Liberty, 15 yards | +1% MOST +1.0 pts |
| Q1 1:44 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards | +3% MOST +1.9 pts |
| Q1 0:49 | Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LIB +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:49 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards | +1% MOST +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:12 | Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LIB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:40 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LIB +1.9 pts |
| Q3 10:10 | Pass Interference on Liberty, 15 yards | +5% MOST +3.1 pts |
| Q3 6:07 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LIB +1.0 pts |
| Q4 14:22 | Pass Interference on Liberty, 12 yards | +4% MOST +1.0 pts |
| Q4 8:28 | Personal Foul on Missouri State, 2 yards | +4% LIB +0.8 pts |
| Q4 1:33 | False Start on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MOST +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:21 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards | +3% MOST +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Liberty’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:34 | Liberty converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% LIB | LIB: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 10:10 | Pass Interference on Liberty, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% MOST | MOST: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 5:55 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +6% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 4:47 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +4% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 3:56 | Liberty converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% LIB | LIB: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 14:22 | Pass Interference on Liberty, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +4% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 8:28 | Personal Foul on Missouri State, 2 yardsJudgment calls | +4% LIB | LIB: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 5:30 | Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +7% LIB | MOST: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Missouri State 96% · Liberty 4%
- Final margin
- Missouri State by 4
- Luck in points
- 6.0 for Liberty
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Missouri State by 10.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Missouri State 76% · Liberty 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Missouri State · 
Liberty
More from Week 11 2025
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at New Mexico State KENN 24–21 · replay 61% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at UTEP JXST 30–27 · replay 65% for the winner
- Florida International at Middle Tennessee FIU 56–30 · replay 98% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan EMU 27–21 · replay 26% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner