Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Stanford at North Carolina, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
North Carolina beat Stanford 20–15, but the replays lean toward Stanford: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to North Carolina.
North Carolina won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Stanford it would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 34%. The numbers
Before kickoff North Carolina was a 71% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:38 left): North Carolina converted 3rd & 12, worth 9 points of win probability to North Carolina.
Final
 Stanford Cardinal | 15 |
|---|---|
 North Carolina Tar Heels | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +66 North Carolina very lucky · −66 Stanford
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stanford wins 7, North Carolina wins 3.
- 1 STAN 28 UNC 0
- 2 STAN 34 UNC 14
- 3 STAN 30 UNC 14
- 4 STAN 16 UNC 3
- 5 STAN 17 UNC 7
- 6 STAN 13 UNC 7
- 7 STAN 10 UNC 8
- 8 STAN 17 UNC 19
- 9 STAN 3 UNC 12
- 10 STAN 13 UNC 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
North Carolina won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Stanford it would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 34%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for North Carolina: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford offenseEPA per play gained | −0.23 | −0.01 | worse by 0.23 |
| Stanford defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.09 | better by 0.02 |
| North Carolina offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.07 | worse by 0.00 |
| North Carolina defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.23 | +0.04 | better by 0.28 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Stanford wins 66% of them, North Carolina 34%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: North Carolina by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stanford by 17+ | 24.5% |
| Stanford by 9–16 | 20.0% |
| Stanford by 1–8 | 19.9% |
| Level after regulation | 5.8% |
| North Carolina by 1–8 | 16.0% |
| North Carolina by 9–16 | 9.3% |
| North Carolina by 17+ | 4.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Verhoff, 27 yds made · 90% expected
- E. Kenney, 41 yds missed · 73% expected
- E. Kenney, 38 yds made · 78% expected
- R. Verhoff, 48 yds made · 59% expected
Penalties: Stanford 7 for 76 yards, North Carolina 11 for 73 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:40 | Offside on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% STAN +1.0 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Holding on North Carolina, 4 yards | +2% STAN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 12:25 | Holding on Stanford, 10 yards | +1% UNC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:34 | Holding on North Carolina, 10 yards | +3% STAN +1.7 pts |
| Q2 0:31 | Pass Interference on North Carolina, 7 yards | +2% STAN +1.0 pts |
| Q3 14:10 | Illegal Snap on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% STAN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 10:50 | False Start on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% STAN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 6:19 | Intentional Grounding on Stanford, 11 yards | +2% UNC +0.7 pts |
| Q3 5:25 | False Start on North Carolina, 2 yards · pre-snap | +1% STAN +0.3 pts |
| Q3 4:15 | Ineligible Downfield on North Carolina, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% STAN +1.4 pts |
| Q3 3:12 | Pass Interference on Stanford, 15 yards | +6% UNC +2.4 pts |
| Q3 1:08 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on North Carolina, 15 yards | +2% STAN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 1:05 | Holding on North Carolina, 10 yards | +2% STAN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 13:19 | Illegal Substitution on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% STAN +0.4 pts |
| Q4 13:05 | Illegal Motion on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNC +0.3 pts |
| Q4 6:58 | Tripping on Stanford, 15 yards | +1% UNC +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:29 | Pass Interference on Stanford, 15 yards | +1% UNC +1.2 pts |
| Q4 0:32 | False Start on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNC +0.2 pts |
When it happened
North Carolina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:51 | Stanford fumbled and North Carolina recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% UNC | STAN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 5:49 | North Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedR. Verhoff made a 27-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him | +6% STAN | UNC: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 12:38 | North Carolina converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +9% UNC | UNC: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 11:06 | North Carolina converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% UNC | UNC: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 4:34 | North Carolina converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +6% UNC | UNC: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 4:15 | Ineligible Downfield on North Carolina, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% STAN | STAN: Turnover |
| 7 | Q3 3:12 | Pass Interference on Stanford, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% UNC | UNC: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 14:16 | R. Verhoff made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 1 of 3 from 45+ before | +5% UNC | UNC: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stanford 10% · North Carolina 90%
- Final margin
- North Carolina by 5
- Luck in points
- 3.3 for Stanford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- North Carolina by 8.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Stanford 66% · North Carolina 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Stanford · 
North Carolina
More from Week 11 2025
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Duke at UConn CONN 37–34 · replay 47% for the winner
- Florida State at Clemson CLEM 24–10 · replay 67% for the winner
- California at Louisville CAL 29–26 · replay 74% for the winner
- SMU at Boston College SMU 45–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Syracuse at Miami MIA 38–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner