Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Florida State at Clemson, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Clemson beat Florida State 24–10, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Clemson was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:25 left): Clemson converted 3rd & 4, worth 9 points of win probability to Clemson.
Final
 Florida State Seminoles | 10 |
|---|---|
 Clemson Tigers | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Clemson lucky · −33 Florida State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida State wins 3, Clemson wins 7.
- 1 FSU 23 CLEM 3
- 2 FSU 30 CLEM 20
- 3 FSU 30 CLEM 27
- 4 FSU 24 CLEM 27
- 5 FSU 16 CLEM 20
- 6 FSU 14 CLEM 21
- 7 FSU 19 CLEM 31
- 8 FSU 13 CLEM 30
- 9 FSU 7 CLEM 27
- 10 FSU 10 CLEM 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida State wins 33% of them, Clemson 67%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Clemson by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida State by 17+ | 6.8% |
| Florida State by 9–16 | 8.7% |
| Florida State by 1–8 | 15.8% |
| Level after regulation | 3.5% |
| Clemson by 1–8 | 23.3% |
| Clemson by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| Clemson by 17+ | 23.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Hauser, 40 yds made · 72% expected
- J. Weinberg, 40 yds missed · 73% expected
- N. Hauser, 23 yds made · 92% expected
- N. Hauser, 43 yds made · 66% expected
- J. Weinberg, 46 yds made · 61% expected
Penalties: Florida State 5 for 50 yards, Clemson 2 for 17 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 0:55 | Unnecessary Roughness on Clemson, 7 yards | +1% FSU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 5:02 | Personal Foul on Florida State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +6% CLEM +4.3 pts |
| Q4 12:07 | False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLEM +1.0 pts |
| Q4 11:00 | Pass Interference on Clemson, 10 yards | +2% FSU +4.0 pts |
| Q4 9:37 | Pass Interference on Florida State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +2% CLEM +2.0 pts |
| Q4 8:44 | Personal Foul on Florida State, 15 yards | 0% CLEM +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:17 | Intentional Grounding on Florida State, 0 yards | 0% CLEM 0.0 pts |
When it happened
Clemson’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:25 | Clemson converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedClemson’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +9% CLEM | CLEM: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 4:38 | Florida State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +5% FSU | FSU: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 3:27 | Florida State fumbled and Clemson recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% CLEM | FSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 0:24 | Florida State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +4% CLEM | FSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 12:42 | Florida State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +6% CLEM | FSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 0:33 | Florida State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +4% FSU | FSU: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q3 11:06 | J. Weinberg missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him | +6% CLEM | FSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 5:02 | Personal Foul on Florida State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% CLEM | CLEM: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida State 14% · Clemson 86%
- Final margin
- Clemson by 14
- Luck in points
- 6.6 for Clemson
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Clemson by 7.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida State 33% · Clemson 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Florida State · 
Clemson
More from Week 11 2025
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner
- Duke at UConn CONN 37–34 · replay 47% for the winner
- California at Louisville CAL 29–26 · replay 74% for the winner
- SMU at Boston College SMU 45–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Syracuse at Miami MIA 38–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner