luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025

Duke at UConn, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

UConn beat Duke 37–34, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, UConn wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to UConn.

Before kickoff Duke was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:22 left): UConn converted 4th & 5, worth 14 points of win probability to UConn.

Final

Duke Blue Devils 34
UConn Huskies 37

November 8, 2025 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · Closing line: Duke −7.5

Luck index +53 UConn lucky · −53 Duke

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Duke wins 5, UConn wins 5.

  1. 1 DUKE 49 CONN 21
  2. 2 DUKE 58 CONN 41
  3. 3 DUKE 49 CONN 38
  4. 4 DUKE 34 CONN 28
  5. 5 DUKE 20 CONN 17
  6. 6 DUKE 43 CONN 45
  7. 7 DUKE 45 CONN 51
  8. 8 DUKE 28 CONN 38
  9. 9 DUKE 10 CONN 27
  10. 10 DUKE 13 CONN 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Duke wins 53% of them, UConn 47%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UConn by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Duke by 17+19.6%
Duke by 9–1615.3%
Duke by 1–818.0%
Level after regulation2.6%
UConn by 1–820.4%
UConn by 9–1612.8%
UConn by 17+11.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth 0.0 points to UConn: the final margin was UConn by 3, without the luck UConn by 3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Freeman, 29 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. Freeman, 42 yds missed · 71% expected
  • C. Freeman, 45 yds made · 64% expected
  • C. Freeman, 20 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Duke 6 for 63 yards, UConn 5 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:27 Roughing the Passer on Duke, 15 yards +3% CONN +1.6 pts
Q1 9:19 Offside on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CONN +0.5 pts
Q1 9:03 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Duke, 13 yards +1% CONN +0.8 pts
Q1 2:36 False Start on UConn, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DUKE +0.4 pts
Q1 1:52 Illegal Substitution on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CONN +0.5 pts
Q2 14:15 Personal Foul on UConn, 15 yards +3% DUKE +1.6 pts
Q2 5:59 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UConn, 15 yards +4% DUKE +1.6 pts
Q2 5:59 Personal Foul on Duke, 15 yards +2% CONN +0.9 pts
Q2 0:10 Illegal Block on UConn, 10 yards +2% DUKE +0.6 pts
Q3 9:31 Holding on Duke, 10 yards +4% CONN +1.2 pts
Q4 15:00 Pass Interference on UConn, 15 yards, wiping out the play +13% DUKE +4.2 pts

When it happened

UConn’s chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UConn was ahead in it, below while Duke was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:03 C. Freeman missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him +6% DUKE CONN: Touchdown
2 Q3 2:09 Duke converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +6% DUKE DUKE: Touchdown
3 Q4 15:00 Pass Interference on UConn, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% DUKE DUKE: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:38 UConn converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +13% CONN CONN: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:22 UConn converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +14% CONN CONN: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:58 UConn’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +12% CONN CONN: End of game
7 Q4 0:55 Duke converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% DUKE DUKE: Turnover
8 Q4 0:18 Duke fumbled and UConn recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% CONN –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Duke 31% · UConn 69%

Final margin
UConn by 3
Luck in points
none
Luck-adjusted margin
UConn by 3.0
Replay with same day's form
Duke 53% · UConn 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Duke · UConn

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