Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Navy at Notre Dame, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Notre Dame beat Navy 49–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Notre Dame wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Notre Dame was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Navy Midshipmen | 10 |
|---|---|
 Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Notre Dame about even · 0 Navy
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Navy wins 0, Notre Dame wins 10.
- 1 NAVY 13 ND 28
- 2 NAVY 6 ND 31
- 3 NAVY 14 ND 45
- 4 NAVY 7 ND 42
- 5 NAVY 7 ND 45
- 6 NAVY 0 ND 41
- 7 NAVY 0 ND 43
- 8 NAVY 3 ND 51
- 9 NAVY 7 ND 59
- 10 NAVY 3 ND 62
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Navy wins 0% of them, Notre Dame 100%. The line is what actually happened: Notre Dame by 39.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Navy by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Navy by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Navy by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Notre Dame by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Notre Dame by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| Notre Dame by 17+ | 97.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Navy 6 for 57 yards, Notre Dame 0 for 0 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:53 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ND +1.3 pts |
| Q1 1:55 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ND +0.2 pts |
| Q2 2:31 | Pass Interference on Navy, 15 yards | 0% ND +0.7 pts |
| Q3 7:54 | Pass Interference on Navy, 15 yards | 0% ND +0.1 pts |
| Q4 8:04 | Illegal Shift on Navy, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% ND +1.1 pts |
| Q4 1:14 | Roughing the Passer on Navy, 12 yards | 0% ND +1.4 pts |
When it happened
Notre Dame’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:09 | Notre Dame converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +1% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 1:55 | Navy was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedFalse Start on Navy, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% ND | NAVY: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 0:30 | Notre Dame was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% NAVY | ND: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 7:14 | Notre Dame was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +1% NAVY | ND: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 6:30 | Notre Dame converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +1% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 3:01 | Notre Dame converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +0% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 1:46 | Notre Dame converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +1% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 14:09 | Notre Dame converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% ND | ND: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Navy 0% · Notre Dame 100%
- Final margin
- Notre Dame by 39
- Luck in points
- 10.5 for Notre Dame
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Notre Dame by 28.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Navy 0% · Notre Dame 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Navy · 
Notre Dame
More from Week 11 2025
- UAB at Rice RICE 24–17 · replay 35% for the winner
- Duke at UConn CONN 37–34 · replay 47% for the winner
- Temple at Army ARMY 14–13 · replay 48% for the winner
- Tulane at Memphis TULN 38–32 · replay 74% for the winner
- Tulsa at Florida Atlantic FAU 40–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- Charlotte at East Carolina ECU 48–22 · replay 91% for the winner
- UTSA at South Florida USF 55–23 · replay 97% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner