Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Charlotte at East Carolina, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
East Carolina beat Charlotte 48–22, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, East Carolina wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff East Carolina was a 96% favorite.
Final
 Charlotte 49ers | 22 |
|---|---|
 East Carolina Pirates | 48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 East Carolina about even · −9 Charlotte
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Charlotte wins 1, East Carolina wins 9.
- 1 CLT 27 ECU 21
- 2 CLT 24 ECU 27
- 3 CLT 28 ECU 37
- 4 CLT 24 ECU 36
- 5 CLT 34 ECU 50
- 6 CLT 23 ECU 43
- 7 CLT 17 ECU 41
- 8 CLT 0 ECU 31
- 9 CLT 14 ECU 49
- 10 CLT 0 ECU 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Charlotte wins 9% of them, East Carolina 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: East Carolina by 26.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Charlotte by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Charlotte by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| Charlotte by 1–8 | 4.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| East Carolina by 1–8 | 10.5% |
| East Carolina by 9–16 | 14.6% |
| East Carolina by 17+ | 66.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Mazzie, 40 yds made · 73% expected
- N. Mazzie, 50 yds made · 55% expected
Penalties: Charlotte 6 for 52 yards, East Carolina 1 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:39 | Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards | 0% ECU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 8:09 | Pass Interference on Charlotte, 11 yards | 0% ECU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 5:06 | Offside on Charlotte, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% ECU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 4:45 | Illegal Block on Charlotte, 6 yards | 0% ECU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 11:58 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on East Carolina, 15 yards | 0% CLT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 3:46 | Unnecessary Roughness on Charlotte, 7 yards | 0% ECU +2.1 pts |
| Q3 7:29 | Pass Interference on Charlotte, 15 yards | 0% ECU +0.8 pts |
When it happened
East Carolina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:51 | East Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +0% CLT | ECU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 13:16 | East Carolina converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +0% ECU | ECU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 11:55 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +0% ECU | ECU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 6:48 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +0% ECU | ECU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 4:53 | East Carolina converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +0% ECU | ECU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q1 1:29 | East Carolina was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +0% CLT | ECU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 1:22 | Return touchdown by East CarolinaSpecial teams | +1% ECU | ECU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 8:54 | Charlotte’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% CLT | CLT: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Charlotte 0% · East Carolina 100%
- Final margin
- East Carolina by 26
- Luck in points
- 7.3 for East Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- East Carolina by 18.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Charlotte 9% · East Carolina 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Charlotte · 
East Carolina
More from Week 11 2025
- UAB at Rice RICE 24–17 · replay 35% for the winner
- Temple at Army ARMY 14–13 · replay 48% for the winner
- Tulane at Memphis TULN 38–32 · replay 74% for the winner
- Tulsa at Florida Atlantic FAU 40–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- UTSA at South Florida USF 55–23 · replay 97% for the winner
- Navy at Notre Dame ND 49–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner