Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Temple at Army, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Army beat Temple 14–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Army wins 5 of 10.
Before kickoff Army was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:45 left): Temple converted 4th & 3, worth 8 points of win probability to Temple.
Final
 Temple Owls | 13 |
|---|---|
 Army Black Knights | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Army lucky · −52 Temple
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Temple wins 5, Army wins 5.
- 1 TEM 20 ARMY 0
- 2 TEM 20 ARMY 7
- 3 TEM 23 ARMY 14
- 4 TEM 13 ARMY 7
- 5 TEM 10 ARMY 7
- 6 TEM 17 ARMY 20
- 7 TEM 13 ARMY 17
- 8 TEM 7 ARMY 14
- 9 TEM 14 ARMY 24
- 10 TEM 6 ARMY 21
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Temple wins 52% of them, Army 48%, counting the 13% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Army by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Temple by 17+ | 8.7% |
| Temple by 9–16 | 16.3% |
| Temple by 1–8 | 25.3% |
| Level after regulation | 13.2% |
| Army by 1–8 | 21.5% |
| Army by 9–16 | 10.4% |
| Army by 17+ | 4.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Hardin, 45 yds missed · 63% expected
- C. Hardin, 24 yds made · 91% expected
- C. Hardin, 31 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Temple 5 for 37 yards, Army 3 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:56 | Illegal Block on Temple, 7 yards | +1% ARMY +0.4 pts |
| Q1 10:21 | False Start on Army, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEM 0.0 pts |
| Q1 6:59 | Illegal Shift on Army, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% TEM +1.5 pts |
| Q1 0:06 | Offside on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEM +0.4 pts |
| Q2 11:44 | Offside on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARMY +0.3 pts |
| Q2 5:52 | False Start on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARMY +0.6 pts |
| Q4 13:22 | Pass Interference on Temple, 15 yards | +4% ARMY +1.0 pts |
| Q4 13:11 | Holding on Army, 10 yards | +5% TEM +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Army’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:08 | C. Hardin missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before | +5% ARMY | TEM: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 4:03 | Temple converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +5% TEM | TEM: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 0:26 | Army was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +6% TEM | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 3:45 | Temple converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +8% TEM | TEM: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 1:01 | Temple was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +5% ARMY | TEM: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 13:53 | Army converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +5% ARMY | ARMY: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 13:11 | Holding on Army, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% TEM | TEM: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 6:27 | Army converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +7% ARMY | ARMY: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Temple 58% · Army 42%
- Final margin
- Army by 1
- Luck in points
- 2.3 for Army
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Temple by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Temple 52% · Army 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Temple · 
Army
More from Week 11 2025
- UAB at Rice RICE 24–17 · replay 35% for the winner
- Tulane at Memphis TULN 38–32 · replay 74% for the winner
- Tulsa at Florida Atlantic FAU 40–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- Charlotte at East Carolina ECU 48–22 · replay 91% for the winner
- UTSA at South Florida USF 55–23 · replay 97% for the winner
- Navy at Notre Dame ND 49–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner