Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 34 of the 41 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
UAB at Rice, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Rice beat UAB 24–17, but the replays lean toward UAB: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: pre-snap flags alone were worth 27 points of win probability to Rice.
Before kickoff UAB was a 54% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q2, 10:41 left): Offside on Rice, 5 yards, worth 19 points of win probability to Rice.
Final
 UAB Blazers | 17 |
|---|---|
 Rice Owls | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +65 Rice very lucky · −65 UAB
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UAB wins 7, Rice wins 3.
- 1 UAB 30 RICE 3
- 2 UAB 20 RICE 0
- 3 UAB 24 RICE 10
- 4 UAB 24 RICE 13
- 5 UAB 10 RICE 3
- 6 UAB 21 RICE 16
- 7 UAB 16 RICE 14
- 8 UAB 7 RICE 10
- 9 UAB 6 RICE 14
- 10 UAB 0 RICE 17
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UAB wins 65% of them, Rice 35%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rice by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UAB by 17+ | 18.8% |
| UAB by 9–16 | 20.8% |
| UAB by 1–8 | 23.5% |
| Level after regulation | 7.1% |
| Rice by 1–8 | 16.1% |
| Rice by 9–16 | 9.5% |
| Rice by 17+ | 4.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Delange, 20 yds made · 95% expected
- E. Gota, 38 yds made · 75% expected
Penalties: UAB 10 for 90 yards, Rice 3 for 22 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:41 | Offside on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap | +19% RICE +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:25 | Personal Foul on Rice, 7 yards | +3% UAB +1.2 pts |
| Q2 0:17 | Illegal Shift on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% RICE +0.6 pts |
| Q3 14:15 | Personal Foul on UAB, 15 yards | +5% RICE +1.6 pts |
| Q3 12:04 | Roughing the Passer on UAB, 15 yards | +5% RICE +1.6 pts |
| Q3 3:05 | Offside on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% RICE +0.8 pts |
| Q3 1:30 | Penalty on UAB, 11 yards | +4% UAB +1.3 pts |
| Q3 1:00 | Running Into the Kicker on UAB, 5 yards | 0% RICE 0.0 pts |
| Q3 0:26 | False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% RICE +0.8 pts |
| Q4 12:35 | Personal Foul on UAB, 15 yards | +4% RICE +1.6 pts |
| Q4 10:26 | Holding on Rice, 10 yards | +4% UAB +1.3 pts |
| Q4 6:36 | Holding on UAB, 9 yards | +2% RICE +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:20 | Illegal Formation on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% RICE +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Rice’s chance of winning
As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 10:41 | The game turned hereOffside on Rice, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +19% RICE | UAB: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 0:58 | Rice was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +6% UAB | RICE: End of half |
| 3 | Q2 0:03 | UAB converted 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +8% UAB | UAB: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q3 9:29 | Rice converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% RICE | RICE: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 6:02 | UAB was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +13% RICE | UAB: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 4:16 | Rice converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +6% RICE | RICE: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 8:52 | UAB was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +5% RICE | UAB: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 8:46 | UAB was stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +6% RICE | UAB: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UAB 34% · Rice 66%
- Final margin
- Rice by 7
- Luck in points
- 4.8 for Rice
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rice by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- UAB 65% · Rice 35% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 34 of the 41 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
UAB · 
Rice
More from Week 11 2025
- Temple at Army ARMY 14–13 · replay 48% for the winner
- Tulane at Memphis TULN 38–32 · replay 74% for the winner
- Tulsa at Florida Atlantic FAU 40–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- Charlotte at East Carolina ECU 48–22 · replay 91% for the winner
- UTSA at South Florida USF 55–23 · replay 97% for the winner
- Navy at Notre Dame ND 49–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner