Week 11 2025 · November 7, 2025
Tulane at Memphis, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Tulane beat Memphis 38–32, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Memphis was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:10 left): Memphis converted 3rd & 9, worth 9 points of win probability to Memphis.
Final
 Tulane Green Wave | 38 |
|---|---|
 Memphis Tigers | 32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Tulane lucky · −26 Memphis
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tulane wins 7, Memphis wins 3.
- 1 TULN 52 MEM 17
- 2 TULN 38 MEM 14
- 3 TULN 43 MEM 24
- 4 TULN 35 MEM 21
- 5 TULN 34 MEM 24
- 6 TULN 35 MEM 28
- 7 TULN 16 MEM 13
- 8 TULN 31 MEM 34
- 9 TULN 26 MEM 34
- 10 TULN 16 MEM 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Tulane wins 74% of them, Memphis 26%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tulane by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tulane by 17+ | 32.6% |
| Tulane by 9–16 | 18.0% |
| Tulane by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| Level after regulation | 4.3% |
| Memphis by 1–8 | 12.3% |
| Memphis by 9–16 | 6.6% |
| Memphis by 17+ | 5.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Spetic, 49 yds made · 57% expected
- P. Durkin, 30 yds made · 87% expected
Penalties: Tulane 9 for 59 yards, Memphis 7 for 51 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:15 | False Start on Memphis, 4 yards · pre-snap | +3% TULN +1.6 pts |
| Q1 9:59 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards | +1% MEM +0.6 pts |
| Q1 1:56 | Intentional Grounding on Tulane, 0 yards | 0% MEM 0.0 pts |
| Q2 12:00 | Personal Foul on Memphis, 12 yards | +4% TULN +1.6 pts |
| Q2 4:34 | False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MEM +0.1 pts |
| Q2 1:24 | False Start on Tulane, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% MEM +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:16 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MEM +0.3 pts |
| Q3 6:48 | Delay of Game on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MEM +1.1 pts |
| Q3 4:27 | Roughing the Passer on Tulane, 15 yards | +1% MEM +1.1 pts |
| Q3 4:20 | Offside on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MEM +1.3 pts |
| Q4 8:49 | False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TULN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:49 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MEM +0.6 pts |
| Q4 6:56 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yards | +3% TULN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:37 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards | +3% MEM +1.2 pts |
| Q4 4:59 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yards | +7% TULN +1.3 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TULN +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Memphis’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:47 | Memphis was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +4% TULN | MEM: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:38 | Memphis converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +5% MEM | MEM: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 9:55 | Memphis converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +5% MEM | MEM: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 7:49 | Memphis converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedFalse Start on Tulane, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% MEM | MEM: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 4:59 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% TULN | TULN: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 4:10 | Memphis converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +9% MEM | MEM: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 2:22 | Memphis was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +5% TULN | MEM: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 1:55 | Memphis was stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +6% TULN | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tulane 100% · Memphis 0%
- Final margin
- Tulane by 6
- Luck in points
- 8.7 for Memphis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tulane by 14.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Tulane 74% · Memphis 26% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Tulane · 
Memphis
More from Week 11 2025
- UAB at Rice RICE 24–17 · replay 35% for the winner
- Temple at Army ARMY 14–13 · replay 48% for the winner
- Tulsa at Florida Atlantic FAU 40–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- Charlotte at East Carolina ECU 48–22 · replay 91% for the winner
- UTSA at South Florida USF 55–23 · replay 97% for the winner
- Navy at Notre Dame ND 49–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner