luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025

Wake Forest at Virginia, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

Wake Forest beat Virginia 16–9, but the replays lean toward Virginia: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 18 points of win probability to Wake Forest.

Before kickoff Virginia was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:33 left): Return touchdown by Wake Forest, worth 17 points of win probability to Wake Forest.

Final

Wake Forest Demon Deacons 16
Virginia Cavaliers 9

November 8, 2025 · Scott Stadium · Closing line: Virginia −7

Luck index +78 Wake Forest very lucky · −78 Virginia

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Wake Forest wins 2, Virginia wins 8.

  1. 1 WAKE 19 UVA 7
  2. 2 WAKE 14 UVA 11
  3. 3 WAKE 3 UVA 6
  4. 4 WAKE 20 UVA 24
  5. 5 WAKE 14 UVA 21
  6. 6 WAKE 0 UVA 10
  7. 7 WAKE 0 UVA 13
  8. 8 WAKE 14 UVA 28
  9. 9 WAKE 0 UVA 20
  10. 10 WAKE 0 UVA 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Wake Forest wins 22% of them, Virginia 78%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wake Forest by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Wake Forest by 17+1.1%
Wake Forest by 9–165.5%
Wake Forest by 1–811.8%
Level after regulation6.9%
Virginia by 1–824.9%
Virginia by 9–1624.8%
Virginia by 17+25.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.2 points to Wake Forest: the final margin was Wake Forest by 7, without the luck Virginia by 5.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • W. Bettridge, 34 yds made · 83% expected
  • W. Bettridge, 21 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Calvert, 39 yds made · 73% expected
  • W. Bettridge, 40 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. Calvert, 50 yds made · 53% expected
  • C. Calvert, 49 yds made · 56% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Wake Forest 5 for 52 yards, Virginia 3 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:33 Offside on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UVA +1.1 pts
Q1 8:40 False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAKE +0.7 pts
Q1 2:44 False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UVA +0.7 pts
Q2 8:33 Personal Foul on Wake Forest, 15 yards 0% UVA +1.6 pts
Q3 11:50 False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAKE +0.5 pts
Q3 0:37 False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAKE +0.6 pts
Q3 0:07 Personal Foul on Wake Forest, 12 yards +3% UVA +0.7 pts
Q4 14:19 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Wake Forest, 15 yards +7% UVA +1.8 pts

When it happened

Virginia’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Virginia was ahead in it, below while Wake Forest was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:47 Wake Forest was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% UVA WAKE: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 1:40 Wake Forest converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +7% WAKE WAKE: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 1:33 Return touchdown by Wake ForestSpecial teams +17% WAKE WAKE: Field goal
4 Q3 3:49 C. Calvert made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 1 of 3 from 45+ before +7% WAKE WAKE: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 14:19 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Wake Forest, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% UVA UVA: Punt
6 Q4 9:46 Wake Forest converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% WAKE WAKE: Field goal
7 Q4 7:48 Wake Forest converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% WAKE WAKE: Field goal
8 Q4 6:21 Wake Forest converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% WAKE WAKE: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Wake Forest 25% · Virginia 75%

Final margin
Wake Forest by 7
Luck in points
12.2 for Wake Forest
Luck-adjusted margin
Virginia by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Wake Forest 22% · Virginia 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Wake Forest · Virginia

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