luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025

California at Louisville, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

California beat Louisville 29–26, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Louisville had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Louisville.

An off day for Louisville: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against California it would win 82% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%. The numbers

Before kickoff Louisville was an 88% favorite. The biggest swing (OT): C. Ranvier made a 49-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to California.

Final (OT)

California Golden Bears 29
Louisville Cardinals 26

November 8, 2025 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Closing line: Louisville −18.5

Luck index +26 California lucky · −26 Louisville

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. California wins 7, Louisville wins 3.

  1. 1 CAL 38 LOU 7
  2. 2 CAL 24 LOU 0
  3. 3 CAL 27 LOU 7
  4. 4 CAL 17 LOU 2
  5. 5 CAL 13 LOU 0
  6. 6 CAL 22 LOU 14
  7. 7 CAL 16 LOU 13
  8. 8 CAL 21 LOU 24
  9. 9 CAL 14 LOU 20
  10. 10 CAL 10 LOU 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Louisville

Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against California it would win 82% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%.

57 points apart for Louisville: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
California offenseEPA per play gained +0.15 +0.06 better by 0.09
California defenseEPA per play allowed +0.08 +0.05 worse by 0.03
Louisville offenseEPA per play gained +0.08 +0.10 worse by 0.02
Louisville defenseEPA per play allowed +0.15 −0.01 worse by 0.16

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

California wins 74% of them, Louisville 26%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: California by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
California by 17+30.2%
California by 9–1621.4%
California by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation5.1%
Louisville by 1–813.5%
Louisville by 9–166.9%
Louisville by 17+3.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.2 points to Louisville: the final margin was California by 3, without the luck California by 12.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Meyer, 40 yds missed · 72% expected
  • C. Ranvier, 30 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Meyer, 27 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Ranvier, 49 yds made · 57% expected
  • C. Meyer, 45 yds made · 62% expected
  • C. Meyer, 26 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. Ranvier, 39 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. Ranvier, 49 yds made · 58% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: California 8 for 60 yards, Louisville 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:18 False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LOU +0.4 pts
Q2 6:28 False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LOU +0.7 pts
Q2 5:57 Illegal Formation on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAL +0.7 pts
Q2 1:47 Illegal Formation on California, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% LOU +1.2 pts
Q2 0:40 Pass Interference on Louisville, 15 yards +2% CAL +0.9 pts
Q3 10:11 Roughing the Passer on California, 15 yards +5% LOU +1.6 pts
Q3 9:25 Personal Foul on California, 15 yards +4% LOU +1.6 pts
Q3 5:15 False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LOU +0.6 pts
Q3 3:50 False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LOU +1.0 pts
Q3 0:28 False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LOU +0.7 pts
Q4 9:41 Holding on Louisville, 10 yards +8% CAL +1.9 pts

When it happened

Louisville’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Louisville was ahead in it, below while California was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 8:21 California converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% CAL CAL: Field goal
2 Q3 10:11 Roughing the Passer on California, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% LOU LOU: Touchdown
3 Q3 3:15 California converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% CAL CAL: Field goal
4 Q3 1:06 California was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% LOU CAL: Field goal
5 Q4 9:41 Holding on Louisville, 10 yardsJudgment calls +8% CAL CAL: Punt
6 Q4 6:35 California was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +6% LOU CAL: Punt
7 Q4 3:45 Louisville was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% CAL LOU: Punt
8 OT C. Ranvier made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 4 of 5 from 45+ before +10% CAL –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

California 95% · Louisville 5%

Final margin
California by 3
Luck in points
9.2 for Louisville
Luck-adjusted margin
California by 12.2
Replay with same day's form
California 74% · Louisville 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · California · Louisville

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