ACC · 2026 season, in progress

California Golden Bears: luck and expected wins

California is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.5 wins. Luck added 0.5: the 27th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often California wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs UCLA	L 24–45	4%	−4
Week 2	@ Syracuse	W 21–18	19%	+81
Week 3	vs Wagner	W 49–7	100%	0
Week 4	vs Clemson	L 10–24	27%	−27

Wk 1 −4 vs UCLA

Wk 2 +81 @ SYR

Wk 3 0 vs WAG

Wk 4 −27 vs CLEM

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	California win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at UNLV	UNLV by 6.9	33%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech by 4.7	38%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Wake Forest	Wake Forest by 6.2	35%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at SMU	SMU by 16.6	16%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at NC State	NC State by 12.1	23%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Virginia	Virginia by 19.2	13%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Stanford	California by 5.8	63%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh by 13.9	21%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in California’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.21	+6.6
Fumble bounces	−0.09	−5.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.16	−14.0

Luckiest wins

Wins California takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 14	vs SMU	W 38–35	18%	+82
2026 Week 2	@ Syracuse	W 21–18	19%	+81
2025 Week 5	@ Boston College	W 28–24	28%	+72
2025 Week 1	@ Oregon State	W 34–15	39%	+61
2025 Week 8	vs North Carolina	W 21–18	71%	+29

Unluckiest losses

Losses California would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Sheraton Hawaiʻi Bowl	@ Hawai'i	L 31–35	91%	−91
2025 Week 10	vs Virginia	L 21–31	46%	−46
2026 Week 4	vs Clemson	L 10–24	27%	−27
2025 Week 6	vs Duke	L 21–45	20%	−20
2025 Week 4	@ San Diego State	L 0–34	8%	−8

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	7–5	4.8	+2.2	4–1	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Oregon State	W 34–15	39%	+61
Week 2	vs Texas Southern	W 35–3	99%	+1
Week 3	vs Minnesota	W 27–14	72%	+28
Week 4	@ San Diego State	L 0–34	8%	−8
Week 5	@ Boston College	W 28–24	28%	+72
Week 6	vs Duke	L 21–45	20%	−20
Week 8	vs North Carolina	W 21–18	71%	+29
Week 9	@ Virginia Tech	L 34–42	3%	−3
Week 10	vs Virginia	L 21–31	46%	−46
Week 11	@ Louisville	W 29–26	74%	+26
Week 13	@ Stanford	L 10–31	4%	−4
Week 14	vs SMU	W 38–35	18%	+82
Sheraton Hawaiʻi Bowl	@ Hawai'i	L 31–35	91%	−91