Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 27 of the 38 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Texas Southern at California, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
California beat Texas Southern 35–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, California wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff California was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Texas Southern Tigers | 3 |
|---|---|
 California Golden Bears | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 California about even · −1 Texas Southern
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas Southern wins 0, California wins 10.
- 1 TXSO 13 CAL 17
- 2 TXSO 7 CAL 17
- 3 TXSO 0 CAL 14
- 4 TXSO 3 CAL 21
- 5 TXSO 0 CAL 21
- 6 TXSO 3 CAL 27
- 7 TXSO 7 CAL 35
- 8 TXSO 0 CAL 31
- 9 TXSO 3 CAL 38
- 10 TXSO 7 CAL 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas Southern wins 1% of them, California 99%. The line is what actually happened: California by 32.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas Southern by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Texas Southern by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Texas Southern by 1–8 | 1.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| California by 1–8 | 4.9% |
| California by 9–16 | 12.9% |
| California by 17+ | 80.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Murray, 44 yds made · 65% expected
- C. Meyer, 43 yds made · 67% expected
Penalties: Texas Southern 7 for 58 yards, California 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:59 | Offside on Texas Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAL 0.0 pts |
| Q1 2:53 | Offside on Texas Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAL +1.4 pts |
| Q1 0:40 | False Start on Texas Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAL 0.0 pts |
| Q1 0:40 | False Start on Texas Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAL +0.6 pts |
| Q1 0:06 | Kick Catch Interference on Texas Southern, 18 yards, wiping out the play | 0% CAL +1.7 pts |
| Q2 14:02 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TXSO 0.0 pts |
| Q2 14:02 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TXSO +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:49 | Roughing the Passer on California, 15 yards | 0% TXSO +2.8 pts |
| Q2 8:27 | Unnecessary Roughness on Texas Southern, 15 yards | +1% TXSO +3.3 pts |
| Q4 10:40 | Holding on California, 10 yards | 0% TXSO +0.7 pts |
| Q4 8:00 | Holding on California, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% TXSO +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:24 | Offside on Texas Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAL +0.5 pts |
When it happened
California’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:16 | Texas Southern converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedTexas Southern converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +0% TXSO | TXSO: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:43 | California converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedCalifornia converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +0% CAL | CAL: End of half |
| 3 | Q1 3:39 | Texas Southern was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedTexas Southern was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +0% CAL | TXSO: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 0:06 | Kick Catch Interference on Texas Southern, 18 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% CAL | CAL: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 13:13 | California was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedCalifornia was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +0% TXSO | CAL: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 11:49 | Roughing the Passer on California, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% TXSO | TXSO: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 10:38 | Texas Southern was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +0% CAL | TXSO: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 8:27 | Unnecessary Roughness on Texas Southern, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% TXSO | CAL: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas Southern 0% · California 100%
- Final margin
- California by 32
- Luck in points
- 4.8 for California
- Luck-adjusted margin
- California by 27.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas Southern 1% · California 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 27 of the 38 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Texas Southern · 
California
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- UConn at Syracuse SYR 27–20 · replay 66% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Troy at Clemson CLEM 27–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- Virginia at NC State NCSU 35–31 · replay 84% for the winner
- Jackson State at Southern Miss USM 38–20 · replay 94% for the winner
- Stanford at BYU BYU 27–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Florida A&M at Florida Atlantic FAU 56–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech VAN 44–20 · replay 100% for the winner