Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Florida A&M at Florida Atlantic, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Florida Atlantic beat Florida A&M 56–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida Atlantic wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Florida Atlantic was a 92% favorite.
Final
 Florida A&M Rattlers | 14 |
|---|---|
 Florida Atlantic Owls | 56 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Florida Atlantic about even · −2 Florida A&M
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida A&M wins 0, Florida Atlantic wins 10.
- 1 FAMU 32 FAU 38
- 2 FAMU 27 FAU 40
- 3 FAMU 17 FAU 35
- 4 FAMU 21 FAU 43
- 5 FAMU 10 FAU 37
- 6 FAMU 17 FAU 47
- 7 FAMU 22 FAU 56
- 8 FAMU 17 FAU 55
- 9 FAMU 10 FAU 54
- 10 FAMU 7 FAU 61
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida A&M wins 2% of them, Florida Atlantic 98%. The line is what actually happened: Florida Atlantic by 42.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida A&M by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Florida A&M by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Florida A&M by 1–8 | 1.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Florida Atlantic by 1–8 | 4.5% |
| Florida Atlantic by 9–16 | 8.6% |
| Florida Atlantic by 17+ | 84.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Smith, 29 yds made · 87% expected
- R. Engstler, 38 yds missed · 76% expected
- G. Smith, 48 yds made · 58% expected
Penalties: Florida A&M 6 for 52 yards, Florida Atlantic 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:15 | Penalty on Florida A&M, 15 yards | +1% FAU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 9:00 | Delay of Game on Florida A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:52 | Pass Interference on Florida A&M, 7 yards | 0% FAU +0.2 pts |
| Q2 14:23 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAMU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 11:45 | Offside on Florida A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 7:30 | Pass Interference on Florida A&M, 15 yards | 0% FAU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 6:55 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% FAMU +4.4 pts |
| Q4 2:17 | False Start on Florida A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Florida Atlantic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:57 | Florida A&M was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +1% FAU | FAMU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:23 | Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +1% FAU | FAU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 11:15 | Florida Atlantic’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedPenalty on Florida A&M, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% FAU | FAU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 9:00 | Delay of Game on Florida A&M, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% FAU | FAU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 7:09 | Return touchdown by Florida AtlanticSpecial teams | +1% FAU | FAU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 6:17 | Florida A&M fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% FAMU | FAMU: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 2:37 | Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +0% FAU | FAU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q1 0:18 | Florida A&M fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% FAMU | FAMU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida A&M 0% · Florida Atlantic 100%
- Final margin
- Florida Atlantic by 42
- Luck in points
- 6.2 for Florida Atlantic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida Atlantic by 35.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida A&M 2% · Florida Atlantic 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Florida A&M · 
Florida Atlantic
More from Week 2 2025
- Tulane at South Alabama TULN 33–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Army at Kansas State ARMY 24–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Tulsa at New Mexico State NMSU 21–14 · replay 24% for the winner
- Texas State at UTSA TXST 43–36 · replay 47% for the winner
- South Florida at Florida USF 18–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- UAB at Navy NAVY 38–24 · replay 79% for the winner
- Houston at Rice HOU 35–9 · replay 85% for the winner
- North Texas at Western Michigan UNT 33–30 · replay 89% for the winner
- Jackson State at Southern Miss USM 38–20 · replay 94% for the winner
- Texas Southern at California CAL 35–3 · replay 99% for the winner