Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
UAB at Navy, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Navy beat UAB 38–24, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Navy was a 93% favorite.
Final
 UAB Blazers | 24 |
|---|---|
 Navy Midshipmen | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Navy about even · −21 UAB
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UAB wins 2, Navy wins 8.
- 1 UAB 31 NAVY 17
- 2 UAB 28 NAVY 24
- 3 UAB 35 NAVY 38
- 4 UAB 24 NAVY 30
- 5 UAB 26 NAVY 35
- 6 UAB 28 NAVY 41
- 7 UAB 42 NAVY 59
- 8 UAB 17 NAVY 37
- 9 UAB 17 NAVY 42
- 10 UAB 21 NAVY 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UAB wins 21% of them, Navy 79%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Navy by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UAB by 17+ | 3.7% |
| UAB by 9–16 | 5.2% |
| UAB by 1–8 | 12.5% |
| Level after regulation | 4.7% |
| Navy by 1–8 | 19.7% |
| Navy by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| Navy by 17+ | 35.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Kirkwood, 27 yds made · 87% expected
- J. Delange, 40 yds made · 75% expected
- J. Delange, 36 yds missed · 82% expected
Penalties: UAB 4 for 32 yards, Navy 8 for 77 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 12:02 | Unnecessary Roughness on Navy, 15 yards | 0% UAB +1.6 pts |
| Q2 11:34 | Pass Interference on Navy, 12 yards | 0% UAB +0.4 pts |
| Q2 6:06 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UAB +0.7 pts |
| Q2 4:44 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UAB, 7 yards | +1% NAVY +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:26 | Delay of Game on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NAVY +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:00 | Holding on UAB, 10 yards | +3% UAB +2.0 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on Navy, 5 yards | +1% UAB +0.3 pts |
| Q3 4:05 | Unnecessary Roughness on Navy, 5 yards | +1% UAB +0.3 pts |
| Q3 3:58 | Pass Interference on Navy, 15 yards | +1% UAB +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:50 | Holding on UAB, 10 yards | +2% NAVY +1.2 pts |
| Q4 14:44 | Illegal Block on Navy, 10 yards | +1% NAVY +4.3 pts |
| Q4 2:52 | Holding on Navy, 10 yards | 0% UAB +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Navy’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 14:14 | UAB converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +2% UAB | UAB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 12:42 | Navy converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +3% NAVY | NAVY: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 4:54 | N. Kirkwood made a 27-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him | +5% UAB | NAVY: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 0:00 | J. Delange made a 40-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for himHolding on UAB, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% UAB | UAB: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q3 10:43 | UAB was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +3% NAVY | UAB: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q3 10:10 | J. Delange missed a 36-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him | +5% NAVY | UAB: End of half |
| 7 | Q3 7:59 | Navy was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +3% UAB | NAVY: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 3:50 | Holding on UAB, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% NAVY | NAVY: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UAB 0% · Navy 100%
- Final margin
- Navy by 14
- Luck in points
- 4.1 for UAB
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Navy by 18.1
- Replay with same day's form
- UAB 21% · Navy 79% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
UAB · 
Navy
More from Week 2 2025
- Tulane at South Alabama TULN 33–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Army at Kansas State ARMY 24–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Tulsa at New Mexico State NMSU 21–14 · replay 24% for the winner
- Texas State at UTSA TXST 43–36 · replay 47% for the winner
- South Florida at Florida USF 18–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- Houston at Rice HOU 35–9 · replay 85% for the winner
- North Texas at Western Michigan UNT 33–30 · replay 89% for the winner
- Florida A&M at Florida Atlantic FAU 56–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Howard at Temple TEM 55–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Campbell at East Carolina ECU 56–3 · replay 100% for the winner