Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Howard at Temple, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Temple beat Howard 55–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Temple wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Temple was a 96% favorite.
Final
 Howard Bison | 7 |
|---|---|
 Temple Owls | 55 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Temple about even · 0 Howard
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Howard wins 0, Temple wins 10.
- 1 HOW 10 TEM 30
- 2 HOW 0 TEM 28
- 3 HOW 3 TEM 35
- 4 HOW 0 TEM 35
- 5 HOW 10 TEM 49
- 6 HOW 3 TEM 45
- 7 HOW 7 TEM 52
- 8 HOW 7 TEM 56
- 9 HOW 3 TEM 55
- 10 HOW 0 TEM 59
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Howard wins 0% of them, Temple 100%. The line is what actually happened: Temple by 48.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Howard by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Howard by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Howard by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Temple by 1–8 | 1.2% |
| Temple by 9–16 | 3.4% |
| Temple by 17+ | 95.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Hardin, 45 yds made · 63% expected
- C. Hardin, 31 yds made · 86% expected
Penalties: Howard 5 for 39 yards, Temple 4 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:04 | False Start on Howard, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEM +0.8 pts |
| Q1 3:57 | Illegal Substitution on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOW +0.8 pts |
| Q2 13:11 | Roughing the Passer on Temple, 15 yards | 0% HOW +1.6 pts |
| Q3 14:03 | Face Mask on Temple, 15 yards | 0% HOW +1.9 pts |
| Q3 12:55 | Holding on Howard, 10 yards | 0% TEM +1.4 pts |
| Q3 10:32 | Delay of Game on Howard, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEM +0.7 pts |
| Q3 0:50 | Holding on Howard, 10 yards | 0% TEM +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:00 | Personal Foul on Howard, 9 yards | 0% TEM +1.9 pts |
| Q4 11:34 | Pass Interference on Temple, 15 yards | 0% HOW +1.9 pts |
When it happened
Temple’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:14 | Howard converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +1% HOW | HOW: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:54 | Howard was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% TEM | HOW: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 5:10 | Temple converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +0% TEM | TEM: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 10:24 | Howard converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +0% HOW | HOW: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 6:06 | Temple converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +0% TEM | TEM: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 4:26 | Temple was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +0% HOW | TEM: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 3:54 | C. Hardin made a 45-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +0% TEM | TEM: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 1:27 | Temple converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% TEM | TEM: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Howard 0% · Temple 100%
- Final margin
- Temple by 48
- Luck in points
- 9.4 for Temple
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Temple by 38.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Howard 0% · Temple 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Howard · 
Temple
More from Week 2 2025
- Tulane at South Alabama TULN 33–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Army at Kansas State ARMY 24–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Tulsa at New Mexico State NMSU 21–14 · replay 24% for the winner
- Texas State at UTSA TXST 43–36 · replay 47% for the winner
- South Florida at Florida USF 18–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- South Carolina State at South Carolina SC 38–10 · replay 68% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- UAB at Navy NAVY 38–24 · replay 79% for the winner
- Houston at Rice HOU 35–9 · replay 85% for the winner
- North Texas at Western Michigan UNT 33–30 · replay 89% for the winner
- Florida A&M at Florida Atlantic FAU 56–14 · replay 98% for the winner